Gai's Tip Sheet
WEDNESDAY 30th APRIL – WARRNAMBOOLRail Position: TrueNEPTUNITE (Race 3, 12.20pm, 1700m, J Stanley, 58kg)Neptunite ran a good race to finish fourth on debut at Hawkesbury. He was quite raw and new, so he’ll take huge natural benefit from the experience and we expect him to be much more streetwise here. He had a jumpout last week to keep his fitness up to the mark between runs, and Blake Shinn was complimentary about him so this will have his fitness where it needs to be for this second-up run. He’s stretching out to 1700 metres which will suit as all he does is gallop, and the blinkers have gone on to ensure he’s entirely focused on the task at hand. This is a competitive race for the grade as there's a $100,000 Inglis Xtra bonus for the winner, but he’s open to plenty of improvement second-up over a longer trip, and we expect him to be in it for a long way.WEDNESDAY 30th APRIL – CANTERBURYRail Position: +2M Entire POISED (Race 1, 12.10pm, 1100m, R Bayliss, 56.5kg)Poised is delighting us ahead of her return. Her two trials have served their purpose in getting her fit and readying her for this first-up run, and she’s been training eye-catchingly since her latest one. She went close to winning on debut over 1100 metres on a Heavy track as a two year old, and she’s now resuming under identical conditions so knowing she’ll get through the wet track adds confidence as it won’t suit all of them. Regan will be positive from barrier 6 to try and get her into a prominent position near the speed, and she’s got the tongue tie on to aid her breathing. This is a lovely starting point for her against her own sex, and the race has cut right up with only five runners so with even luck in running she should be right there at the finish. SHANGRI LA IMPACT (Race 3, 1.20pm, 1550m, T Clark, 57kg)Shangri La Impact ran a brilliant race on debut at Kembla. She showed a lot of fight over the concluding stages, and she was just unlucky to be nosed out of it by a race fit gelding in the run to the line. She’s taken plenty of improvement from the outing, both mentally and physically, and she strips a lot fitter and tighter in condition here. She’s going to relish the step up to 1550 metres, and we don’t think she’ll have a problem with the wet track either so the added emphasis on stamina should only be to her advantage. It’s a small field so Tim will go forward from barrier 4 to try and make his own luck from the front to ensure he’s not dictated to by anybody else, and we expect her to be hard to run down.CORDINA (Race 4, 1.55pm, 1200m, R Bayliss, 56.5kg)Cordina ran a brilliant race at this track last week. She got further back in the run than we anticipated, but she flew home with a vengeance and was arguably unlucky not to finish closer. It confirmed she’s returned from Melbourne in great shape though, and she hasn’t missed a beat since so whilst this race is only nine days later we’re confident that she’s up to the challenge. The step up to 1200 metres looks ideal for her at this stage of the preparation, and whilst she’s now taking on boys and older horses we think she’s got the necessary upside to handle it. Regan will be positive from barrier 7 to try and sit a bit closer to the speed than last time, and even though the heavy track is an unknown we’re confident she’ll get through it and she’s more than capable of featuring in the finish.CRITERIA (Race 7, 3.50pm, 1900m, R King, 54.5kg)Criteria was very disappointing first-up at Newcastle, however there were excuses for the run and we’re prepared to be forgiving of his effort. We’ve changed his routine and stable since then, and he now gets a tongue tie on too which will aid his breathing so hopefully this combination of changes can see him in a much better light here. The step up to 1900 metres is an unknown, but we expect him to stay and the tight turning track at Canterbury doesn’t place a huge emphasis on stamina. Rachel will try to roll forward from barrier 9 so that she can get across into a better position passing the winning line for the first time and heading into the first turn, and hopefully he can enjoy an easy time of things in the middle stages of the contest. The track is rated a heavy 10 so this adds another element of the unknown but Kiwis are renowned swimmers so we're hopeful it will play to his strengths. He needs to improve but we think he’s capable of doing so, and we hope to see him run a big race.ALINEA (Race 8, 4.25pm, 1100m, R King, 56.5kg)Alinea is pleasing us ahead of her first-up run. Her two trials have served their purpose in getting her fit, and she’s done everything right since her most recent hit out at Rosehill a fortnight ago. She was a bit outpaced when last first-up over course and distance, but she’s drawn a lovely barrier in 2 so if Rachel can get her to hold a forward position she should be able to enjoy a lovely run in transit. The track’s rated a Heavy 10 which she’s unproven on, but she’s handled soft tracks well previously and we’re as confident as we can be that she’ll get through it. This is a nice race for her against her own sex, and if she can get into a smooth rhythm from the outset and enjoy all the favours in the run then we see no reason why she won’t let down strongly to get her preparation off to an encouraging start. POWER BALLARD (Race 8, 4.25pm, 1100m, A Hyeronimus, 59.5kg)Power Ballard is delighting us ahead of her first-up run. She was fantastic when winning her latest trial, and she’s continued to thrive and improve since then. 1100 metres around a tight turning track like Canterbury is ideal for her first-up, and she’s got plenty of early speed so we expect her to roll forward from barrier 6 to make her own luck on or near the lead. She’s raced well on a heavy track previously so she should handle the testing conditions, and she’s a course and distance winner so we expect her to take plenty of catching.THURSDAY 1st MAY – WARRNAMBOOLRail Position: TrueROAD RUNNER (Race 1, 11.15am, 3200m, W Gordon, 67kg)Road Runner ran a fantastic race when first-up at Pakenham. He travelled enthusiastically and jumped very stylishly throughout, so he was most unlucky to just be run down by a swooper from the back of the field right on the line. He’s quite a burly horse so he’s taken tremendous improvement from that run and he strips fitter and tighter in condition here, so we anticipate there’s plenty more to come from him. He looks to get control of this race and he should be able to roll along at a tempo to suit himself, but this is a step up in grade so he’s taking on some well-credentialed rivals and it’s not going to be easy. However, he’s a terrific jumper so this should stand up under the increased pressure he’ll face here and any further rain won’t hinder him as he’s won on a heavy track previously. He’s got plenty going for him and we expect him to be right there at the finish once again.NOTABADBUY (Race 6, 1.50pm, 1700m, B Melham, 61kg)Notabadbuy ran his heart out to finish second at Sandown last week, and he certainly didn’t deserve to be pipped on the line like that. However, he confirmed he’s not just a ‘fresh’ horse and that he can be effective after his first-up run which is encouraging, and he’s bounced through the run in tremendous shape so whilst this is only ten days later he appears to be ready for the challenge. The slight step up in trip to 1700 metres should suit him well now that he’s third-up, and he carried 61kg when almost winning last time so we know he can defy big weights. The blinkers certainly had the desired effect last time so they stay on here, and Ben will go forward from barrier 8 to try and make every post a winning one. He’s got fantastic wet track form so any further rain won’t be to his detriment, and fingers crossed he can get his nose back in front for a well-deserved victory.MILITARY MISSION (Race 9, 3.55pm, 2350m, J Allen, 57.5kg)Military Mission ran better than his finishing position suggests at Wagga last time. He was crowded for room down the home straight which prevented his rider from riding him out at a crucial stage, so whilst he wouldn’t have won he likely would have finished closer. It was a good hit out for him to help blow away the cobwebs, and he strips fitter here ahead of this second-up run. The step up in trip to 2350 metres is a positive and the soft surface will also be to his advantage, as will any further rain that falls because he’s got plenty of wet track form. John will let him settle where he’s comfortable from barrier 14, but we expect him to find a position in the first half of the field. He has terrific form racing in this direction, having won at Hobart and twice at Caulfield, so it might be what he needs to help rejuvenate him. It’s a competitive race once again but on his best form he could pick them up and carry them, so fingers crossed he recaptures some spark and runs a big race.THURSDAY 1st MAY – WAGGARail Position: TrueSTARDOM (Race 1, 12.25pm, 1200m, J Stanley, 56.5kg)Stardom run a brilliant race to finish third on debut at Kembla. She’s taken plenty of confidence from it as she’s been strutting her stuff at home ever since, and naturally the race experience has done her the world of good physically too. We think she’ll relish the step up to 1200 metres as it’ll enable her to travel just the bit more economically in the run, and whilst barrier 13 is a bit sticky she’s got the early speed to roll forward and get across so Jett will be positive from the outset. The expansive track at Wagga will suit her and she’s open to plenty of improvement second-up, so we think she’ll be right there at the finish.THE INSTRUCTOR (Race 7, 4.20pm, 1200m, J Stanley, 60kg)The Instructor continues to go from strength to strength and his win in the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington last time was nothing short of fantastic. He disposed of some talented rivals and confirmed himself a rapidly improving sprinter, so he’s giving us all plenty of fun. This valuable contest is a nice steppingstone for him, but he’s up in the weights with 60kg on his back so he needs to continue on his upwards trajectory to defy this. However, we think he’s capable of doing so and outside of the top six the rest of the field are rated significantly inferior to him. Jett knows him very well now and has a great relationship with him, so he’ll roll forward from barrier 10 and utilise his natural speed to get himself in the best possible position. He’s reverting to racing the Sydney direction here but he’s won at Canterbury previously so we don’t have any concerns there. He’s the most likeable gelding with a fantastic will to win which always takes horses a very long way, so we’ve no doubt he’ll give this a good shake and be right there at the business end of the race.THURSDAY 1st MAY – WYONGRail Position: TrueSISU SPIRIT (Race 8, 4.45pm, 1600m, T Clark, 59.5kg)Sisu Spirit gave us an enormous thrill when winning so determinedly first-up at Newcastle. His effort was all the more meritorious when you consider he was first-up and how much work he had to do in the run, but he was simply too good for them. He’s had almost three weeks to get over those exertions which has done him good, and his recent work has been nothing short of excellent. He’s unproven on a wet track but with his breeding we think he’ll relish it, and he’ll also love stretching out to the mile too. Barrier 11 is a bit tricky at a tight track like Wyong, but Tim will be positive from there to try and get across into a better position where he can make his own luck on or near the speed. This Class 1 race is the ideal steppingstone for him on his first foray outside of maiden grade, and we expect him to be hard to beat.FRIDAY 2nd MAY – WAGGARail Position: TrueFEAR NO EVIL (Race 4, 2.30pm, 1600m, J Stanley, 60.5kg)We threw Fear No Evil in at the deep end in the Mornington Guineas last time but he rose to the challenge. It was a terrific effort to finish just 2.6 lengths from the winner considering he was softened up in the lead by the horse to his outside, so he justified our faith in him. This race is easier, so naturally he goes up in the weights and has to defy 60.5kg. However, we think he’s capable of shouldering it. He sticks to the mile for now and whilst he’s not raced in the Sydney direction before, we don’t envisage it being a problem. Wagga’s a fair and expansive track so he should get control of the race from barrier 8 and we expect him to be hard to beat.BEAR ON THE LOOSE (Race 7, 4.20pm, 2000m, J Stanley, 54kg)Bear On The Loose ran a fantastic race first-up at Hawkesbury. He showed a lot of fight and was unlucky to lose out by a mere pixel on the line. However, it confirmed he’s returned in fine fettle and as you would expect he’s taken natural improvement from the run. This is a step up in grade so he needs to lift to a new level, but he’s got upside stretching out to 2000 metres and with just 54kg on his back he’s right down in the weights. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1, so Jett will be positive from there to get him rolling along close to the speed where he can get into a comfortable rhythm. Wagga’s a nice expansive track which should suit his racing style, and we think he’s capable of rising to the occasion and running a very competitive race.
