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Gai & Adrian TV 12th September 2025

Bellazaine returns to the races at Flemington on Saturday to contest the $175k Listed 3 Year Old Fillies Cap D’Antibes Stakes over 1100 metres with jockey Regan Bayliss booked to ride.

Playing By The Rules

Emma Reeves aids us with programming and identifies who she thinks is the best placed horse each weekend.  Gerringong, Saturday 13th September, Flemington, Race 5: This is an anti ‘playing by the rules’ but the purpose of this piece is to explain why we do what we do, and I thought this was the most interesting case study this week. At the start of this preparation, Gerringong had placed in Stakes grade in 50% of her lifetime starts without ever winning one. In each of those three races she’s rocketed home from back in the field, so she’s arguably been unlucky not to have won. This has done her rating no favours though, and she was allotted 84 and 86 in Sydney. Our options were to race the boys in a benchmark 88, or step straight back into Stakes grade where she’s poorly weighted. At this time of year, those benchmark races tend to be full of horses preparing to step into Stakes company, and the golden carrot of more Black Type for this mare was too good to pass up. Given that she was going to be poorly weighted, we wanted to target Melbourne mares races which have historically been more winnable, and she was superb first up when beaten 1.5 lengths by multiple Group 1 winner Magic Time, with only a 3kg difference in weight. On Saturday we had the option of the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes over 1400 metres against the girls, or the Listed Tontonan Stakes over the same distance against the boys. Based on the nominations, she rated almost identically in both. In Melbourne you cannot accept in two races, but you can see who is accepting in each race. My initial thoughts were that you go to the Group 2 against the girls if an equal chance in both, but we monitored the acceptances right to the wire and noticed that all the dangers accepted in the mares race, and none accepted in the Tontonan. So we did a swift 180 and accepted there. She’s never raced over 1400 metres and we felt that was the missing link last preparation, but the races simply weren’t available to her. She’s carrying 5.5kg more than her true weight and racing the boys, but maybe rules are made to be broken.

Gai's Tip Sheet

WEDNESDAY 17th SEPTEMBER - CANTERBURYRail Position: +6M Entire SHANGRI LA BOY (Race 2, 2:10pm, 1250m, A Hyeronimus, 57kg)Shangri La Boy is delighting us ahead of his first career start. He’s matured into a lovely three year old, and his two trials this time in have been vastly improved so it goes to show that he’s blossomed with a bit of time and patience. 1250 metres is a lovely starting point for him as we felt he’d be slightly vulnerable over a shorter distance, and he’s drawn well in barrier 5 so we expect Adam to be able to roll forward from there to control the race to suit himself from the front. Canterbury’s a unique track but we have a lot of success there, and with a dry weather forecast track conditions should be extremely fair come race day. He’s conceding experience to some horses that have demonstrated well above average ability thus far, so this isn’t going to be easy and he’s likely to improve as he gets out over slightly further in time. However, he’s fit and knows his job, so we expect him to give a strong kick and take plenty of catching in the run to the line.WEDNESDAY 17th SEPTEMBER - BENDIGORail Position: TrueLILAC GIRL (Race 4, 2:55pm, 1500m, T Nugent, 56kg)Lilac Girl didn’t show the improvement we hoped to see second-up at Seymour. However, it was a very heavy track and she was punching the breeze in the run so again we’re prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt. This further step up to 1500 metres is a positive, and the drying track will also see her in a better light too. She’s still quite immature as she’s such a big filly, and she certainly needs everything in her favour if she’s to give this a shake. However, she’s drawn well in barrier 6 and Teo will let her land where she’s comfortable and hopefully enjoy an economical run in transit so that she can show something at the business end of the contest.THURSDAY 18th SEPTEMBER - KEMBLARail Position: +3M EntireSWITZ (Race 3, 2:55pm, 1500m, R Bayliss, 56kg)Switz was a bit plain first-up over 1200 metres at this track, beating just one rival home. However, we subsequently found mucus in his lungs so this may have been ailing him, and he’s open to plenty of improvement second-up with that now resolved and stretching out to a much more suitable 1500 metres. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1, so Regan should be able to flow forward from there to take control of the race and dictate terms to suit himself and we've put a tongue tie on to assist his breathing which has the potential to bring about improvement. He needs to lift but he’s capable of doing so under more suitable conditions, and a forward showing would come as no surprise.

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