Gai's Tip Sheet
TUESDAY 17th MARCH - HAWKESBURYRail Position: +2m 800m-400m, True RemainderABOVE THE LAW, Race 3, 1300m, 3.05pm, A Hyeronimus, 61kgAbove The Law is delighting us ahead of his return. His two trials have been encouraging, and they’ve given him the right fitness foundation to kickstart his campaign. He was most consistent last preparation, finishing second in three of his four starts so we know he’s got the ability. One of the placings was over course and distance, so he goes well at this track and he’s got both wet and dry track form which makes him a versatile and adaptable performer. The handicapper hasn’t missed him as he’s got top weight of 61kg, but Adam’s a natural heavyweight rider so he’ll carry minimal deadweight in the form of lead which is always our preference. He should be able to roll forward from barrier 8 to make his own luck on or close to the speed, and we expect him to be right there at the finish.LADY CAPITALIST, Race 3, 1300m, 3.05pm, R Bayliss, 56kgLady Capitalist was a little disappointing on debut at Goulburn. However, the track was testing and she’s entitled to improve a lot for the experience. This track’s rated a Good 4 which will be much more to her liking, and she’s drawn well in barrier 5 so Regan should be able to make his own luck on or close to the speed. She's stretching out to 1300 metres here, but we think the combination of her being fitter and it being a drier surface means it's within her range. Furthermore, another important factor in selecting this race is that it's restricted to her own age group which is always our preference where possible, rather than having to take on older horses in the country. She needs things to go her way, but we hope she can take a step forward and be competitive here. FEARN TRICK, Race 5, 2000m, 4.20pm, R Bayliss, 55kgFearn Trick was disappointing at Rosehill last time. She was dropping back in trip slightly, but she was entitled to finish off stronger than she did. As such, we’re dropping her back in grade and stepping her up in trip here and we’re confident this is what she needs to show her best. Regan will be positive from barrier 8 to try and work forward into prominent position, and she should be able to travel in a comfortable rhythm mid-race over this longer distance. Taking on older horses isn’t easy to do, but she’s getting out to the right distance range and she’s got bottom weight which is a plus so we hope she can bounce back and run a competitive race.SAVVY SPY, Race 5, 2000m, 4.20pm, A Hyeronimus, 57kgSavvy Spy was a little disappointing at Canterbury last time. However, he was racing on a seven-day backup and he’s probably better judged on his excellent second-placed effort two back. He’s had a couple of weeks to get over his recent exertions, and his trackwork has been excellent so all the signs at home are very positive. He’s taking on older horses again here which isn’t easy, but it’s a drop in grade and we’ve tinkered with his gear and put a cross-over noseband on to encourage him to settle better in the middle stages. Adam got a great tune out of him at Canterbury so we’re delighted they’re reunited here, and we hope to see him bounce back and fight out the finish.WEDNESDAY 18th MARCH - WYONGRail Position: +3M EntireHELLABELLA, Race 2, 1100m, 2.20pm, T Clark, 55kgHellabella is delighting us ahead of her return. Her two winning trials have been excellent and she has a terrific attitude, so this is going to take her a very long way. She’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1, so Tim will be able to utilise her early speed to roll forward and make his own luck from the front end. This is a lovely starting point for her against her own age group and 1100 metres around a tight turning track will suit her, so if she can give a strong kick we think she will be very difficult to run down.LOREAL BELLE, Race 2, 1100m, 2.20pm, R King, 55kgLoreal Belle is pleasing us ahead of her first career start. She took plenty of improvement from her first trial to win her latest one, and she’s continued to do everything right since then. Rachel got a terrific tune out of her in that trial so we’re delighted she retains the ride for race day, and she’s drawn to do no work in barrier 2 so we hope she can work forward from there to put herself on or close to the speed. She may appreciate slightly further than 1100 metres in time but this is a lovely starting point for her against her own age group, so if she enjoys a smooth run in transit we hope to see her fighting out the finish.LILAC GIRL, Race 3, 1600m, 2.55pm, T Clark, 54kgLilac Girl ran a fantastic race to finish second when resuming at Newcastle a fortnight ago. The horse that beat her had the benefit of a run under his belt and he was dropping back in grade having placed in town, so she lost nothing in defeat and it was an extremely encouraging performance. She’s taken good improvement from the run as you’d expect, so she strips fitter here and she’s going to relish stretching out to 1600 metres. Tim will let her land where she’s comfortable from barrier 6 but the steadier tempo of this longer race should enable her to race on or close to the speed, and if she can take the improvement we’ve seen since her first-up run to race day we expect her to be right there at the finish.BUBBLES UP, Race 8, 1350m, 5.50pm, T Clark, 56.5kgBubbles Up gave us an almighty thrill when winning so dominantly on debut at Rosehill three weeks ago. She’s come through the run in tremendous shape and she hasn’t missed a beat since, so we’re very excited to see her step out once again. She’s drawn a wide gate, however she will come in a fair bit after scratchings. Also, the 1350 metre start is right at the end of the chute so there’s a very long run to the first and only turn in the race and we’re confident she’s got the gate speed to roll forward and get across into a more favourable inside position. This is a big step up in grade, so we’re under no illusion as to the task she faces and there are several older mares in opposition which can be tough. However, she’s a talented filly who’s got plenty of upside in only her second career start, and we think she’s more than capable of giving this a good shake.THURSDAY 17th MARCH - WYONGRail Position: +2m 1100m-300m, True RemainderWISHFUL THINKER, Race 3, 1200m, 2.45pm, R Bayliss, 58.5kgWishful Thinker ran creditably when resuming at Kembla a fortnight ago. It was a heavy track which just stretched his stamina to its limit first-up, so he understandably got a little tired in the final furlong. However, he’s come through the run in great shape and he’s taken plenty of benefit from it, so he strips much fitter here. He sticks to 1200 metres for now before we explore the option of potentially stretching him out in trip, and this tight turning track places an emphasis on speed which will play to his strengths. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 2 so Regan should be able to use his speed to go forward and control the race to suit himself, so with improvement to come off the back of his first-up run we expect him to be right in this.
