Gai's Tip Sheet
FRIDAY 20th MARCH - ALBURYRail Position: True BEAR ON THE LOOSE, Race 7, 2000m, 4.55pm, R Bayliss, 54kgBear On The Loose ran his absolute heart out to finish an agonising second at Randwick last time. He was so tough where it mattered, and he lost nothing in defeat trying to concede 4kg to the eventual winner. He’s bounced through that run in magnificent order, and he’s a remarkably tough gelding who thrives on his work. He sticks to 2000 metres for now, and whilst this is a step up in grade he’s proven himself at this level before and he gets some weight relief as a result, so with just 54kg on his back it’s a lovely race for him. Regan will use his early speed to roll forward from barrier 12 and race on or close to the pace as he likes to do, and he’s got plenty of wet track form so the Soft 7 surface and potential for further rainfall doesn’t concern us one bit. He ticks plenty of boxes and he’s a model of consistency, so we expect him to be fighting out the finish once again and fingers crossed he gains a well-deserved and long overdue victory. SATURDAY 21st MARCH - ROSEHILL Rail Position: +2M Entire CAMPALDINO, Race 2, 2400m, 12.55pm, T Clark, 59kgCampaldino gave us such a thrill when winning at Randwick last time. He’s bounced through it in brilliant shape and he’s thrived over the last fortnight, so we couldn’t be happier with him. We know he’s going to relish this step up to 2400 metres, and whilst he’s up in the weights here and worse off with horses he beat last time we’re confident he’s got the upside to take it in his stride. Tim knows how to ride him and will settle him just off the speed where he can get a nice tow into the race, and if any rain does materialise we know he’ll handle it. He ticks a lot of boxes and we expect him to be very hard to beat.BELLAZAINE, Race 4, 1200m, 2.05pm, A Hyeronimus, 56kgBellazaine is in wonderful shape ahead of her return. Her two trials have been encouraging and they’ve given her the right fitness foundation to kick off her campaign. She’s resuming against her own age group which is always our preference, and whilst her weight penalty for being a Listed winner makes life a bit tougher it’s still the most suitable race to start her off in. Adam will utilise her natural early speed to roll forward from barrier 6 and race on or close to the speed, and she’s got a tongue tie on to assist her breathing so from there she should be able to travel in a comfortable rhythm throughout the middle stages. She’ll take natural improvement from this outing and we expect her to keep improving as she gets deeper into her preparation, but she’s ready to do herself justice and we hope she can give this a good shake to get things off to an exciting start. ALALCANCE, Race 5, 2000m, 2.40pm, A Hyeronimus, 57kgAlalcance ran an encouraging race first-up where she was carrying a fair amount of weight. She travelled enthusiastically enough in front but she battled on gamely when challenged, and she was only beaten 1.96 lengths at the finish. Most of those that were ahead of her had race fitness on their side too, so she’s entitled to improve a lot with the benefit of a run under her belt. Her subsequent work has been excellent so we’re confident she’s done just that, and she sticks to 2000 metres for now to give her a solid fitness grounding before we explore options over further. She likes to lead so Adam will let her roll forward from barrier 5, and given the small field she maps to get control of the race so hopefully she will relax and switch off nicely in the middle stages. She’s got a fair bit to find with some of these on the ratings, however these small fields can produce unlikely results so she’s by no means out of it. Any further rain would also certainly be to her advantage, so we’re hopeful she can give a strong kick and take plenty of catching. SIR DELIUS, Race 5, 2000m, 2.40pm, C Williams, 59kgSir Delius resumed with a terrific effort behind Autumn Glow and Aeliana last time. He was conceding race fitness to them and it developed into a sit and sprint which didn't suit him, but we knew whatever he achieved there he was only going to build upon it second-up. He’s taken tremendous improvement from it and giving him three weeks between runs has enabled us to prepare him for what we hope will be a peak performance. His regular work rider said he feels like a different horse now, so this gives us a lot of confidence going into this run. He’s a Group 1 winner over this distance so we know he’s going to relish stretching out in trip, and whilst these small fields can turn into tactical affairs there’s no better jockey to have aboard than Craig so he’ll ride the race as he finds it. He’s the top-rated horse in the field and whilst Aeliana is a formidable opponent, we think he’s got the class to find his way back into the Winner’s Circle.SHIKI, Race 8, 1200m, 4.35pm, R Bayliss, 54.5kgShiki is pleasing us ahead of her Grand Final. She was a little disappointing in the Group 2 Silver Slipper last time, but it was a high-pressure race and she never looked entirely comfortable so it just blunted her finishing effort. Moreover, it was her first run after a big effort at Magic Millions followed by an interstate journey so we’re prepared to be forgiving. We’ve had a month since then to freshen her up and get her back on song, and all the signs at home are extremely positive so we can’t fault her in that respect. Regan rides her for the first time on race day but he rode her in her final gallop and got a feel for her, so he’s full of confidence leading into race day. She’s drawn well in barrier 9, and she maps to settle just in behind what looks to be good early speed on paper but she's a filly who needs things to go her way to excel. As such, the key to her will be whether she can find a position before switching off and settling in the run, so hopefully this materialises and she can enjoy all the favours. The Golden Slipper is the holy grail of two year old racing and is understandably as competitive as it gets, so it’s far from easy. However, if she enjoys some luck in running and can put her best foot forward we hope it’s enough to put her in the finish.
