Gai's Tip Sheet
FRIDAY 18th SEPTEMBER - NEWCASTLERail Position: TrueOCEAN PREDATOR - Race 1, 1.00pm, 1850m, T Clark, 56.5kgOcean Predator looked as though he was going to drop right out of the race at Wyong last time. However, to his credit he kept plugging on for pressure and he did well to finish just over 5 lengths from the winner. He’s incredibly once paced so this step up to 1850 metres on an expansive track is a big tick for him, and Tim will try to be as positive as possible because he’s going to need a genuinely run race to be effective. He might have limitations but it’s folly to give up on a stayer before they’ve had the chance to prove themselves over the right distance, so we’re hopeful he can keep improving each time he gets out in trip and show something for you here.FRANKIE'S BOY - Race 2, 1.35pm, 1400m, T Clark, 58.5kgFrankie’s Boy is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. You’ve all been incredibly patient with him but he’s a lovely style of horse who’s really had a chance to mature into himself, so Adrian and I are quietly confident that he’s going to be worth the wait. He showed ability as a two year old but his manhood was holding him back, so he’s two stone lighter now and much maturer as a result. His two trials this time in have been encouraging enough, especially given he was only a little over four lengths behind Group 1 winner Sir Delius in his latest one and these hit outs given him the right fitness foundation to kick off his campaign. 1400 metres on a lovely big track like Newcastle is the ideal starting point for him as he’d be vulnerable to speedier horses over anything shorter, but we also go into the race knowing he’s going to improve for his first run in over a year and as he continues to stretch out in trip. Nonetheless, he’s in wonderful order and we think he’s got enough natural ability to run a big race and get his preparation off to an encouraging start.WAIHEKE ROSE - Race 3, 2.10pm, 1400m, T Clark, 58kgWaiheke Rose excelled herself with a superb effort on debut at Warwick Farm. The winner had the benefit of race experience and fitness on her side, and the third placed horse Wonka has since gone on to win a $100k Super Maiden at Kensington which is a solid form boost. She’s taken plenty of natural improvement from that so not only does she strip fitter here, but she’ll also have a much clearer idea of what’s required of her. She sticks to 1400 metres for now before we stretch her out in trip, but she’ll relish this big track. She’s taking on some older mares which isn’t easy to do, but the race is restricted to her own sex which is always preferable and we think she’s got the ability and upside to get the job done here en route to bigger and better things.BELLA MONTAGNA - Race 6, 4.05pm, 2300m, R Bayliss, 54kgBella Montagna endured a bit of a frustrating run in transit when resuming at Wyong, but she still fought bravely to the line where she was beaten by less than a length. She’s taken plenty of improvement from it and she’s going to appreciate this step up to 2300 metres on a bigger, more expansive track . As such, there should hopefully be much less chance of her enduring trouble in running again here in what’s another small field. Regan will let her find her feet from barrier 4 and whilst her racing pattern of getting back will always require some luck, hopefully she gets it here as she’s capable of winning.FULLY LIT - Race 7, 4.40pm, 1500m, R Bayliss, 55.5kgFully Lit ran another honest race when finishing fourth at Rosehill last time. He’s up in grade here so it’s going to be tougher, but he gets a bit of weight relief as a result. He finished third in this race last year when he was rated 86 and carried 54kg, so he’s only got 1.5kg more on his back here and it’s a proven pathway for him which gives us confidence that he is more than capable of holding his own at this level. As we had hoped, there have been a few scratchings so it's a small field of 10 now, with two of his main dangers out of contention. The distance of today's race means he doesn't drop back in trip which is always our preference and we feel that he's more than capable of making his mark at this level. He’s such a tough gelding who thrives on his racing, and we see no reason why he won’t be fighting out the finish once more.FRIDAY 18th SEPTEMBER - BALLARATRail Position: TrueCOLD SHOWER - Race 4, 2.30pm, 2000m, J Stanley, 57kgCold Shower is doing everything right ahead of his first start. He hasn’t set the world alight in his three trials in Sydney, however they were over inadequate distances and they’ve given him the right fitness grounding. He’s debuting over 2000 metres which is slightly unusual, but he’s very one paced and we just think he’d be too vulnerable over anything shorter. This way, Jett can get him rolling along in a comfortable rhythm and whilst he’ll still no doubt take improvement from this race day experience, he’s fit enough to do himself justice. He’s starting off at a realistic level and horses can improve a lot under race day conditions, so we will have a much clearer line on him after this outing and we hope to see him run a competitive race to get his career off to an encouraging start.SATURDAY 19th SEPTEMBER - RANDWICKRail Position: +6M EntireWATSON - Race 3, 1.00pm, 1600m, R King, 56kgWatson ran another brilliant race when finishing fourth over course and distance last time. It was his first attempt at the mile and he was softened up a little bit in the run, but he still fought on extremely bravely to the line. He’s taken further improvement from that and it’s a tough mile at Randwick, so it’s seasoned him up nicely and he’s thriving in the stable so he couldn’t be in a better headspace. This is a slight drop in grade to Benchmark 88 company which is no bad thing and Rachel got a terrific tune out of him last time so we’re delighted she’s able to retain the ride, and we see no reason why he won’t roll forward from barrier 4 and take plenty of catching in the run to the line.THE EUPHRATES - Race 6, 2.45pm, 2000m, T Clark, 55kgThe Euphrates excelled himself with a fantastic performance when finishing fourth first-up in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes. We knew the mile would be on the short side but he coped extremely well, and we were very proud of his effort. That was his first run for two years and some horses can suffer from ‘second-up syndrome’ where they race a bit flat second-up after a big first-up effort following a long break, so that’s always in the back of our minds. However, all the signs at home are positive and he’s been fresh and well during his work so we can’t fault him. He’s obviously going to be extremely well suited by this step up to 2000 metres, so Tim will flow forward from barrier 9 to get him rolling along in a comfortable rhythm. He’s very well weighted on the set weights and penalties structure of this race so he’s well placed to be extremely effective, and if he can build upon his reappearance run then he’s going to be mightily hard to beat.SATURDAY 19th SEPTEMBER - CAULFIELDRail Position: +7M EntireFEAR NO EVIL - Race 1, 12.10pm, 1800m, J Childs, 59kgFear No Evil keeps turning up and running fantastic races, so he’s an owner’s dream. He’s been unlucky to bump into the very progressive Buccleuch in his last two outings, but he’s simply thriving and he’s showing no signs of training off. After four runs at 1400 metres this preparation we’re now stretching him out to 1800 metres which we’re looking forward to, because the steadier tempo of this longer race should enable him to travel even more comfortably in the run and we’re also hoping it will make his turn of foot that bit more effective against some dourer rivals. He’s untested beyond a mile but he won over that distance on a Heavy 10 at Warwick Farm as a three year old, so we think 1800 metres is within range and it’s certainly worth rolling the dice as it’ll open up plenty of options for him if he does stay. Jordan knows him inside out by now so he’ll know exactly what to do, and whilst he finished down the field in his only previous outing at this track that was in a tougher grade and we see no reason why he can’t be effective here. He’s got a lot going for him and we’d love for him to find his way back into the Winner’s Circle for you all.STARDOM - Race 6, 3.00pm, 1200m, J Childs, 56kgStardom gave us such a thrill when excelling herself to finish second first-up in the Group 3 Toy Show Quality three weeks ago. She had a bit to find on the ratings but she almost got the win, and she earned more valuable Black Type in the process. She’s taken good improvement from that so she strips fitter here, and her gallop prior to departing Randwick was very sharp. Her recovery was excellent which is extremely positive and adds confidence that she’s spot on leading into race day. She’s since taken the journey to Flemington in her stride where she's been getting pampered by the team and physio, and she has previous winning form in the southern capital so we know she’s versatile and can produce her best racing in this direction which adds further confidence. This is another lovely race for her against her own sex and she should appreciate the additional 100 metres. She’ll have to do a bit of work to go forward and get across from barrier 8 but she’s got the speed to do so and Jordan’s perfect for the job, so he should be able to get her into the right position. She’s a bonny mare who always tries hard and wears her heart on her sleeve, and we’re confident she’ll give her all again for you here.CAMPALDINO - Race 8, 4.15pm, 2000m, J Childs, 57.5kgCampaldino ran as expected when resuming at Randwick earlier this month. We knew the mile would be on the short side and so it proved, but he was only beaten 4 lengths so he was by no means disgraced. He’s taken plenty of improvement from it so he strips fitter here, and he’s going to be much more effective at 2000 metres. He’s taken everything in his stride since heading south to our Flemington stable and the physios have been working their magic on him this week (see video below) which he loves, so we’re excited to see him have his first race in the southern capital. Caulfield is a unique track but he should handle it, and Jordan was able to get a feel for him earlier in the week so he’ll let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 17 but he’ll likely have to be ridden with some cover from that alley and hopefully he can enjoy an even run in transit. This race is another building block towards his main targets over 2400 metres and perhaps further later in the preparation, but he won the Listed Randwick City Stakes over this distance in the autumn so we know he can be extremely competitive over it and we expect him to be in the finish.SATURDAY 19th SEPTEMBER - NEWCASTLERail Position: +3m 800m-400m; True RemainderKOIBITO - Race 3, 2.30pm, 1250m, L Beuzelin, 58kgKoibito is delighting us ahead of her first-up run. You’ve all been incredibly patient with her but she’s a lovely style of mare who’s really had a chance to mature into herself, so Adrian and I are extremely confident that she’s going to be worth the wait. She showed a lot of ability in her races as a two and three year old, twice placing in town, and her two trials this time in have been very encouraging. 1250 metres on a lovely big track like Newcastle is an ideal starting point for her as she’d be vulnerable to speedier horses over anything shorter, but we also go into the race knowing she’s going to improve fitness wise for her first run in a year and as she continues to stretch out in trip. She's also better weighted under the set weights conditions of this race so these two factors swayed us away from today's race. She’s in wonderful order and we think she’s got enough natural ability to run a very big race and get her preparation off to an exciting start.MUMBAI MAHARANI - Race 3, 2.30pm, 1250m, Z Wadick, 58kgMumbai Maharani is pleasing us ahead of her first-up run. She hasn’t set the world alight in her two trials this time in, but she wasn’t beaten far last time and she was responding for pressure through the line. She’s a mare who’s going to get over ground this preparation, so 1250 metres on a lovely big track like Newcastle is a good starting point for her as she’d be vulnerable to speedier horses over anything shorter. This race is restricted to her own sex which is always our preference so that’s another positive, however we also go into the race knowing she’s going to improve for her first run and as she continues to stretch out in trip. Nonetheless, she’s in very good order and we think she’s got enough natural ability to run a very big race and get her preparation off to an encouraging start.SUNDAY 20th SEPTEMBER - NOWRARail Position: +1m 1200m - 800m , +4m 800m - 350m , True RemainderAKATOA - Race 5, 4.04pm, 1200m, L Beuzelin, 55.5kgAkatoa ran an extremely promising race on debut at Hawkesbury. The 1000 metres probably had her at her top throughout, but she fought on very bravely to the line and she wasn’t beaten far at all. She’s taken a lot of improvement from the experience so not only is she fitter here, she’s also a lot more switched on and aware of her job. She’s going to relish stretching out to 1200 metres, and whilst barrier 14 is a little sticky she will come in after scratchings and Louis will ride her positively from the gates to try and get across into a more favourable inside position. She’s got a wonderful attitude and tries hard which will take her a long way, and we expect her to be right in the finish.LADY CAPITALIST - Race 7, 5.20pm, 1400m, L Beuzelin, 57kgLady Capitalist surprised us somewhat with the dominance of her victory at Hawkesbury last time. It was a big step forward from what she’d shown previously, and she was the beneficiary of an enterprising ride as Louis was able to slip the field at halfway and from there they struggled to reel her in. She sticks to 1400 metres for now as it probably sees her out, but she’s drawn well in barrier 3 so we expect Louis to repeat the front running tactics deployed last time. Her rivals probably won’t let her have it as easy this time and the first run outside of maiden grade is notoriously tricky as she’s taking on much tougher and more seasoned opposition, so we acknowledge this. However, it’s a country grade race so it’s about as gentle a steppingstone as we can find for her and we hope she can be competitive once again.
