Gai's Tip Sheet
FRIDAY 13th FEBRUARY - CANTERBURYRail Position: +2M EntireSAYTARA, Race 1, 16550m, 6.00pm, T Clark, 54.5kgSaytara was no match for the winner at Warwick Farm last time, but she arguably ran her best race of the preparation thus far and she had the rest of the field well covered. That was her second run in a row at 1400 metres, so we’re now broaching new ground by stretching her out to 1550 metres. However, we think she’ll appreciate it and the tight turning track at Canterbury places an emphasis on speed rather than stamina so we think it’s within range for her. Tim got a terrific tune out of her last time, so he’ll roll forward from barrier 3 to try and repeat the front running tactics he deployed last time and if she can get a nice mid-race breather before giving a strong kick, we hope that she will be very hard to run down.SCRUMPTIOUS, Race 3, 1250m, 7.00pm, T Clark, 59.5kgScrumptious gave us such a thrill when gaining a well-deserved win to break her maiden over course and distance a fortnight ago. She did it the tough way from the front, but she fought on tenaciously under pressure and couldn’t have been more determined to win. The first two pulled well clear of the rest of the field which is a positive sign, and importantly she’s come through the outing in terrific shape so she’s coming into this in a brilliant headspace. It’s rare to get a race like this for three-year-olds in town, so it’s great that we can keep her against her own age group and as first races outside of maiden grade go this is about as ideal as it gets. However, the flip side is that because it’s a rare race, whilst there are only eight runners it’s very competitive with plenty of unexposed and improving types all meeting. Tim will roll forward from barrier 6 to try and repeat the front running tactics that were so successful last time, so if she can get a nice mid-race breather before giving a strong kick we hope she’ll be very hard to run down once again.WILLINGHAM, Race 3, 1250m, 7.00pm, A Hyeronimus, 60kgWillingham gave us such a thrill when gaining a well-deserved win to break his maiden over course and distance three weeks ago. He had to navigate through traffic, but he fought on tenaciously and couldn’t have been more determined to win. He’s come through the outing in terrific shape and giving him three weeks between runs has done him the world of good, so he’s coming into this in a brilliant headspace. It’s rare to get a race like this for three-year-olds in town, so it’s great that we can keep him against his own age group and as first races outside of maiden grade go this is about as ideal as it gets. However, the flip side is that because it’s a rare race, whilst there are only eight runners it’s very competitive with plenty of unexposed and improving types all meeting. Adam will roll forward from barrier 8 to try and slot into a handy position close to the speed, so if he can enjoy a smooth run in transit before giving a strong kick we hope he’ll be very competitive at the finish once again.CENTENARIO, Race 4, 1900m, 7.30pm, R Bayliss, 56kgCentenario ran a fantastic race when resuming at this track a fortnight ago. He was savaging the line late over 1550 metres, so we know he’ll relish this step up to 1900 metres. He’s drawn well in barrier 2 but he doesn’t often show much gate speed, however Regan knows him well so he’ll let him land where he’s comfortable in the run but ideally he won’t be giving the leaders a huge start. This race is a lovely steppingstone for him, and with natural improvement forthcoming with a run under his belt we expect him to be right there at the finish. FEARN TRICK, Race 6, 1550m, 8.30pm, T Clark, 54kgFearn Trick gave us a big thrill when resuming with a win at Scone two weeks ago. We wanted to give her a confidence boosting easy kill on debut and that’s how it played it, but it’s always good to see them go and do it. The way she hit the line over 1400 metres suggests she’s going to relish this step up to 1550 metres, and she’s only got 54kg on her back which is a positive. The start for this race is in a chute with a short run to the first turn, so Tim will be positive from barrier 9 to try and get across into a better position to avoid being caught wide in the run and from there she should be able to relax into a comfortable rhythm. This is a big jump in grade so we’re under no illusions that she needs to improve a lot to be winning, but she’s very lightly raced so we are confidence there is a lot of improvement to come and we expect her to give this a good shake.FRIDAY 13th FEBRUARY - CRANBOURNERail Position: +9M EntireCONCHIERO, Race 6, 1400m, 8.45pm, J Childs, 57.5kgConchiero ran an almighty race when finishing second first-up at Caulfield. He did everything right and looked like he had the race sewn up, but he was just reeled in late. He’s taken plenty of benefit from that run so he strips fitter here, and he sticks to 1400 metres for now as it seems to suit him well. He’s drawn a lovely barrier in 3, so Jordan should be able to roll forward from there without doing too much work and take control of the race. He carries 1.5kg less than he did at Caulfield and this is a slight drop on grade from an $80k to a $60k race, so he’s got plenty going for him and we think he will be hard to beat.SATURDAY 14th FEBRUARY - FLEMINGTONRail Position: TrueNEWFOUNDLAND, Race 6, 2500m, 2.55pm, L Cartwright (2kg), 57kgNewfoundland was fantastic when winning at Warwick Farm last month. He’s come through that run in great shape and he’s taken the journey to Melbourne in his stride, so he is firing on all cylinders ahead of this outing. The extra 100 metres is a positive and he’s raced well over course and distance previously, so we know it suits him. Luke takes a valuable 2kg off his back which brings him down in the weights, and he maps to enjoy a favourable run in transit. He’s got plenty going for him and he ticks lots of boxes, so we see no reason why he won’t be in the Winner’s Circle once again.SATURDAY 14th FEBRUARY - RANDWICKRail Position: +4M EntireMISS CHANEL, Race 3, 1100m, 1.30pm, R Bayliss, 54.5kgMiss Chanel ran an almighty race to finish second in the Group 3 Widden Stakes last time. She’s continued to improve since then and she’s absolutely thriving ahead of this outing, so she couldn’t be in better shape. She’s got the experience to roll forward from barrier 9 and get across into an inside position where she can sit close to the speed and enjoy a smooth run in transit. This race isn’t as deep as the one she contested last time, so with further improvement to come we’re confident that she will be very hard to beat.BETTER BY FAR, Race 3, 1100m, 1.30pm, Z Lloyd, 54.5kgBetter By Far ran a great race on debut at Scone. She was a victim of circumstance after being caught wide in the run, but the way she knuckled down to go and win her race was most admirable and she was unlucky to be pipped in the final stride by a horse that had enjoyed an easier run in transit. Importantly she’s come through that run in great shape, and she’s going to be a lot more streetwise here which bodes well. She’s drawn a lovely barrier in 5, so she will be able to use her natural speed to roll forward and take up a handy position on or close to the pace. This is a competitive race and a big step up in grade, so she’s taking on horses with stronger form lines. However, she’s open to plenty of improvement second-up and under more economical circumstances it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her give this a good shake.CALOOCAN BEAUTY, Race 3, 1100m, 1.30pm, T Clark, 54.5kgCaloocan Beauty has come through her debut run a fortnight ago in very good order. As Tim mentioned after that run, she got a bit lost at the top of the straight which surprised us as she’d been very professional in her trials but she kept trying hard to the line which was encouraging to see. She steps up to 1100 metres here which is going to suit her hugely, and she’s drawn to do no work in barrier 2 so we expect her to roll forward from there to most likely settle on or just in behind the leaders where she should get a good tow into the race. This is a lovely race for her, so we’re confident she’ll take a step forward from her first run and be very competitive here.GOLD BULLION, Race 5, 1600m, 2.40pm, J Parr, 61kgGold Bullion let himself down at the barriers when he was last sent to the races, but he’s returned to the trials since then and been given the all clear. He ran well enough first-up over an inadequate 1400 metres, so he’ll relish this step up to the mile and sticking to this grade is a nice steppingstone for him. Josh is a natural heavyweight rider so whilst 61kg is a big weight, he’ll carry minimal deadweight. From barrier 10 Josh probably won’t have much choice but to slot in where he can in the run to try and get him travelling where he’s comfortable, and if he turns up on a going day and puts his best foot forward he’s capable of giving this a good shake.THE INSTRUCTOR, Race 8, 1400m, 4.30pm, A Hyeronimus, 59kgThe Instructor went down all guns blazing in the Group 3 JRA Plate at Rosehill a fortnight ago. He’s come through that outing in wonderful shape though and he loves being a racehorse, so he’s been beating his chest on the track each morning since. He steps up to 1400 metres here which he might just be looking for at this stage of his preparation, but this is a big step up in grade against some extremely highly rated and genuine weight for age performers so we’re under no illusions as to the challenge he faces. However, they’re conceding race fitness and have bigger targets down the line so this is an opportune time to take them on, and Adam knows him well so he’ll get him rolling along in front from barrier 3. It’s a tough ask but he’s as genuine as they come, so if he shows his trademark turn of foot and tenacity the rest of the field will need to be at their best to overhaul him.GERRINGONG, Race 9, 1200m, 5.10pm, A Hyeronimus, 58kgGerringong is thriving ahead of her return. She took good improvement from her first trial to finish second in her latest one at Warwick Farm, and she’s continued to go the right way since then. This is a lovely starting point for her against her own sex, and she went close to winning when last first-up over this distance at Caulfield and she’s certainly improved again since then so this adds further confidence. Adam will let her settle where she’s comfortable from barrier 6 but we envisage her racing on or close to the speed, and with even luck in running we see no reason why she won’t be featuring in the finish.
