Gai's Tip Sheet
SATURDAY 26th SEPTEMBER - KEMBLARail Position: +7m 1100m - W/Post, +6m remainderITALIAN SPIRIT - Race 1, 12.50pm, 1400m, W Costin, 60kgItalian Spirit couldn’t be in better shape ahead of his return. He had an extended break in the paddock but it’s ultimately done him the world of good as he’s returned a stronger, maturer gelding. His two winning trials have been nothing short of excellent, and Pulsator who he beat in his first trial came out and won on debut in this same grade which gives us added confidence. 1400 metres is a lovely starting point for him as he’ll be able to roll forward from barrier 4 and get into a comfortable rhythm, and there’s no better rider at the provincials than Winona so we’re thrilled to have her aboard. He’s got top weight and he’s conceding race fitness to his two main rivals so these are our biggest queries, but we think he’s got enough natural ability to overcome it and we hope he’ll be very hard to beat.PULSATOR - Race 2, 1.25pm, 1400m, W Costin, 57.5kgPulsator couldn’t have been more impressive when winning by 2.3 lengths on debut at this track. He’s been full of confidence since then so it’s done him the world of good, and he’s ready to go again here. Winona got a terrific tune out of him last time so we’re delighted to have her aboard again, and she’ll be positive once again from barrier 1 to try and repeat the front running tactics she deployed last time. The first run outside of maiden grade is notoriously tricky but a Class 1 Handicap is about as gradual a steppingstone as there is, so it’s a lovely race for him. We expect him to relish stretching out to 1400 metres and with natural improvement forthcoming, he should be right in the finish.VAN HOVEN - Race 3, 2.00pm, 1600m, W Costin, 59kgVan Hoven took a positive step forward from his debut performance to finish second over course and distance last time. He kept grinding away at the one pace to the line, so whilst we’d have loved to get him out in trip a suitable option simply isn’t available to us for another couple of weeks. As such, this is a suitable steppingstone to give him vital race experience and season him up further, plus it’s nice to race for some money rather than trial again. There’s no better rider at the provincials on a Saturday than Winona so we’re thrilled to have her aboard, and she’ll get after him from barrier 8 to try and control the race because he’s going to be most effective in a genuinely run race. He’s got ability and his best days lie ahead of him once he gets over ground, but he’s still capable of being competitive here and we expect him to run another honest race.LOREAL BELLE - Race 4, 2.35pm, 1400m, W Costin, 59kgLoreal Belle is on a bit of a retrieval mission here after disappointing us at Hawkesbury last time. Winona felt the track might’ve been a bit firm and loose underfoot which can put some horses off and make them lose confidence, so let’s put a line through the outing as she’s shown us previously that she is capable of more. Her subsequent work at home has been very good so we can’t fault her in that regard, and there’s been some rain this week so the track’s rated a Soft 6 at the time off acceptances. Whilst this might improve with better weather come race day, the fact there’s been some rain means the track should race with a certain amount of give in it which will hopefully aid her chance. Winona will let her roll forward to try and get across from barrier 9, and the step up to 1400 metres will also help her because there’s some stamina on her dam’s side and it should enable her to get into a comfortable rhythm in the middle stages. On her best form she’s capable of winning a provincial maiden against her own sex, so fingers crossed she can bounce back from her last run and be challenging at the finish.GENTLE GIANT - Race 7, 4.30pm, 2000m, W Costin, 59kgGentle Giant gave us such a thrill when winning so determinedly at Kensington last time. He’s been full of confidence since so it’s done him the world of good, and he couldn’t be in a better headspace ahead of this run. The first run after breaking your maiden is never easy, but a Class 1 & Maiden Plate is about as gentle a progression as you can find so this is an ideal race for him. He’s also going to relish stretching out to 2000 metres because all he does is gallop, so this has the potential to bring about further improvement. Winona rides our horses expertly and there’s nobody better at the provincials on a Saturday, so she’ll get him rolling along from barrier 2 and we’ll be surprised if he’s not in the Winner’s Circle once more.CRITERIA - Race 7, 4.30pm, 2000m, L Beuzelin, 59kgCriteria ran well to finish second when resuming. Whilst we’d hoped he’d be good enough to win at that level, it was encouraging to see him be competitive and finish his race off strongly. He’s going to be suited by the step up to 2000 metres, and there’s no more determined rider at the provincials than Louis at present so you can rest assured your horse will be given every opportunity. Louis will be positive on him from barrier 8 to try and land close to the speed, from where he can get into a comfortable rhythm and conserve energy mid race. This isn’t an overly strong race so it’s an attractive option for him, and we hope he can be competitive once again.SATURDAY 26th SEPTEMBER - ROSEHILLRail Position: TrueBELLA MONTAGNA - Race 3, 1.05pm, 2400m, T Clark, 53kgBella Montagna ran another honest race when finishing third in the Newcastle Cup last week. She doesn’t have much of a change up in speed and her racing pattern leaves her slightly vulnerable to those with a sharper turn of foot, but there’s no faulting her attitude and she tries extremely hard. She’s going to appreciate this further step up in trip to 2400 metres, and whilst she’s racing on an eight-day backup and having her third run of the month she’s third-up in her preparation and now is the right time to do so. Tim’s back aboard and he’ll ride her with some cover from barrier 4 in what is another small field, so hopefully the leaders set a genuine gallop and she’s able to peel out at the right time to build up her revs and not be caught flat footed as she has in the past. She’s ready to win so fingers crossed things fall her way here and enable her to do just that.BEAR ON THE LOOSE - Race 4, 1.40pm, 1900m, A Hyeronimus, 61.5kgBear On The Loose is in great shape ahead of his first-up run. He’s had three trials so he’s as fit as we can have him, and we’re wasting no time by starting him off over 1900 metres which he’s going to relish. He always jumps and puts himself on or close to the lead so whilst he’ll have to do a bit of work from barrier 12 we expect that to still be the case here, but Adam knows him well so he’ll get him rolling along where he’s comfortable. He loves wet tracks but with an improving forecast it’ll probably dry out come race day, however he does have form on dry surfaces too so he’s not a one trick pony. He’s got a big weight but he was beaten by a nostril in this same grade of race with the same weight at Randwick in February, so we know he can handle it. He’s wonderfully genuine and rarely finishes out of the top four so he’s an owner’s dream, and we see no reason why he won’t be featuring in the finish to get his spring carnival off to an exciting start.OUR EMPEROR - Race 6, 2.50pm, 1100m, T Clark, 56kgOur Emperor is in brilliant order ahead of his return. He took good improvement from his first trial to finish second in his most recent one, finding only the highly rated, talented and race fit four year old Napoleonic too strong for him in the run to the line so there was no disgrace in that. He’s as fit as we can get him but he’s a burly colt who’s still carrying a bit of condition, so there is definitely going to be improvement to come off the back of this outing. His main targets are later in his preparation, so we are mindful of this and he’s not been prepared to peak first-up. However, 1100 metres is still a lovely starting point for him and we know he’s got bundles of speed so whilst he’s drawn the widest gate in barrier 8, Tim should be able to get him rolling along from there and track across with likely leader Blue Door to hopefully obtain a more favourable inside position and conserve energy mid-race. He showed a lot of ability when blitzing his rivals on debut at Warwick Farm and he handles wet tracks so any further rain wouldn’t harm his chances, and we expect him to run a big race to get his spring carnival off to an exciting start.SURFIN' BIRD - Race 7, 3.25pm, 1400m, T Clark, 54kgSurfin’ Bird is thriving ahead of her first-up run. She took good improvement from her first trial to finish third in her most recent one behind two talented sprinters, and she was unsurprisingly doing her best work through the line. These hit outs have her spot on for the 1400 metres first-up, and she has a terrific first-up record having won twice and been beaten a nostril on the other occasion so this gives us further confidence. She’s resuming in a tough race though so we’re under no illusions as to the task she faces, but she closed out last preparation with a fantastic win in a $500k race against her own sex so we know she’s talented and capable of holding her own. Tim will let her land where she’s comfortable from barrier 3 but she maps to race on speed, so if she get into a comfortable rhythm and show a strong turn of foot we see no reason why she won’t be giving this a good shake to get her spring carnival off to an exciting start.PLAGIARISM - Race 8, 4.05pm, 1400m, R Bayliss, 56.5kgPlagiarism wasn’t entirely suited by the drop back to 1200 metres last time. However, he’s come through the run well and prior to that he was an impressive winner of the Group 3 Up And Coming Stakes over 1300 metres at this track. As such, we’re looking forward to stretching him out to 1400 metres and we’re confident he’ll be much better suited by it. He’s drawn well in barrier 3 so Regan should be able to get to the front and hopefully make his own luck accordingly, but this is a fiercely competitive Group 1 so others may be hellbent on leading in which case Regan will adjust and ride the race accordingly. This is a big jump in grade and being rated 77 means he has a significant amount to find with several rivals. However, he’s tough, honest and rarely runs a bad race all of which is going to take him a long way. As such, if some of those towards the top of the betting underperform he’ll be there to pick up the pieces, and we hope he can run a big race for you all.NEW ENDEAVOUR - Race 9, 4.45pm, 1500m, R Bayliss, 57.5kgNew Endeavour is ticking all the right boxes ahead of his return. You’ve all been incredibly patient with him, and he is a high maintenance gelding who requires very careful management and training. However, he’s also a very talented individual and he showed last spring when finishing third in the $1mil. The Gong that he’s still extremely capable on his day. He finished third in this race in 2024 but he had the benefit of a previous run on that occasion, so this is very much a starting point for him and we don’t expect him to be hitting his straps until he stretches out to 1800 metres and beyond. He’s probably not going to have the speed to go with them early, so Regan will just let him land where he’s comfortable and ride the race accordingly. He handles wet and dry tracks so whilst there’s been some rain this week it’s forecast to dry out come race day, but we know he can handle this albeit he’s probably most effective when there’s some give in it. Above all, we just hope to see him enjoy a smooth run in transit before hitting the line strongly to signal he’s returned in good order en route to bigger and better things deeper into the spring carnival.SOVEREIGN HILL - Race 9, 4.45pm, 1500m, D Gibbons, 53kgSovereign Hill is thriving ahead of this run. He lost nothing in defeat when finishing fifth at this track last time, and as we mentioned pre-race he had to run over 1200 metres again as a steppingstone to the right race. As such, we can’t wait to see him stretch out to 1500 metres here and we’re confident it is going to bring about further improvement. Dylan will try to work forward from barrier 9 and settle him where he’s comfortable, but the slightly steadier tempo of this longer race should enable him to sit closer to the speed and his turn of foot will be that bit more effective over this trip. He is up in grade quite markedly here but he drops in the weights as a result, and he’s a progressive gelding who’s still got more to come. As such, whilst it won't be easy we want to find out if he's a legitimate hope in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap so we hope he can level up and make his presence felt here against some talented opposition.FARNICLE - Race 10, 5.25pm, 1100m, A Hyeronimus, 61kgFarnicle is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. He’s had almost a year off so whilst he’s as fit as we can get him after two encouraging trials, he’s still carrying some condition and will doubtless take plenty of improvement from this. As such, 1100 metres is a good starting point for him before we explore stretching him out in trip, and his best form to date has been over 1400 metres when finishing second in both the Group 2 Sires’ Produce at Eagle Farm and the Listed Tapp-Craig at Rosehill so we know his best days are ahead of him. As such, Adam will let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 2 and we just hope to see him enjoy an even run in transit before hitting the line strongly to get his preparation off to an encouraging start.SUNDAY 27th SEPTEMBER - CAULFIELDRail Position: +13M Entire BY CHOICE - Race 2, 1.15pm, 1440m, T Clark, 57kgBy Choice is thriving ahead of this run. She’s taken everything in her stride since heading south to our Flemington stable, and she’s always been the most professional filly with a fantastic temperament so we sent her down with confidence knowing she has the right attributes to handle its demands. She had an encouraging trial at Randwick prior to travelling down which has kept her fitness up to the mark , so the fact she’s going a month between runs doesn’t concern us. She’s going to relish stretching out to 1440 metres and we can’t wait to see her over this trip, as despite being untested beyond 1200 metres her racing pattern suggests she’s crying out for further and we’re confident she’ll relish it. The rail is out 13 metres which can create an on-pace bias, so Tim will try to go forward from barrier 8 to land as close to the speed as possible as it might be disadvantageous to get back in the run. Tim knows her well though so we’re thrilled he’s travelling down for the ride, and Caulfield can be a tricky track so it helps having a jockey who knows her and she’s a well-balanced filly so we think she will adjust accordingly. She’s one of the top-rated fillies in the field and we think she’s open to plenty of upside stretching out in trip, so whilst it won’t be easy we think she has all the right attributes to be fighting out the finish.
