Gai's Tip Sheet
THURSDAY 17th SEPTEMBER - KEMBLARail Position: TrueLUCAND MAGIC - Race 7, 5.20pm, 1150m, R Bayliss, 58kgLucand Magic gave us such a thrill when winning so impressively on debut at Wyong. He’d shown ability in his trials but race day is another matter, however, he absolutely pulverized his opponents. He’s taken plenty of improvement from it so whilst we’re under no illusions that this is tougher, it’s a lovely, gradual steppingstone for him on his first foray outside of maiden grade and his two main dangers are also unbeaten from one career start, so they’re all evenly matched. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1 so Regan should be able to use his speed to secure the lead and control things to suit himself, and Kembla’s a very fair track which should suit him. He’s a very likeable gelding and we’ll know more about him after this run, but we’re confident he’ll be hard to beat.FRIDAY 18th SEPTEMBER - NEWCASTLERail Position: TrueOCEAN PREDATOR - Race 1, 1.00pm, 1850m, T Clark, 56.5kgOcean Predator looked as though he was going to drop right out of the race at Wyong last time. However, to his credit he kept plugging on for pressure and he did well to finish just over 5 lengths from the winner. He’s incredibly once paced so this step up to 1850 metres on an expansive track is a big tick for him, and Tim will try to be as positive as possible because he’s going to need a genuinely run race to be effective. He might have limitations but it’s folly to give up on a stayer before they’ve had the chance to prove themselves over the right distance, so we’re hopeful he can keep improving each time he gets out in trip and show something for you here.FRANKIE'S BOY - Race 2, 1.35pm, 1400m, T Clark, 58.5kgFrankie’s Boy is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. You’ve all been incredibly patient with him but he’s a lovely style of horse who’s really had a chance to mature into himself, so Adrian and I are quietly confident that he’s going to be worth the wait. He showed ability as a two year old but his manhood was holding him back, so he’s two stone lighter now and much maturer as a result. His two trials this time in have been encouraging enough, especially given he was only a little over four lengths behind Group 1 winner Sir Delius in his latest one and these hit outs given him the right fitness foundation to kick off his campaign. 1400 metres on a lovely big track like Newcastle is the ideal starting point for him as he’d be vulnerable to speedier horses over anything shorter, but we also go into the race knowing he’s going to improve for his first run in over a year and as he continues to stretch out in trip. Nonetheless, he’s in wonderful order and we think he’s got enough natural ability to run a big race and get his preparation off to an encouraging start.WAIHEKE ROSE - Race 3, 2.10pm, 1400m, T Clark, 58kgWaiheke Rose excelled herself with a superb effort on debut at Warwick Farm. The winner had the benefit of race experience and fitness on her side, and the third placed horse Wonka has since gone on to win a $100k Super Maiden at Kensington which is a solid form boost. She’s taken plenty of natural improvement from that so not only does she strip fitter here, but she’ll also have a much clearer idea of what’s required of her. She sticks to 1400 metres for now before we stretch her out in trip, but she’ll relish this big track. She’s taking on some older mares which isn’t easy to do, but the race is restricted to her own sex which is always preferable and we think she’s got the ability and upside to get the job done here en route to bigger and better things.BELLA MONTAGNA - Race 6, 4.05pm, 2300m, R Bayliss, 54kgBella Montagna endured a bit of a frustrating run in transit when resuming at Wyong, but she still fought bravely to the line where she was beaten by less than a length. She’s taken plenty of improvement from it and she’s going to appreciate this step up to 2300 metres on a bigger, more expansive track . As such, there should hopefully be much less chance of her enduring trouble in running again here in what’s another small field. Regan will let her find her feet from barrier 4 and whilst her racing pattern of getting back will always require some luck, hopefully she gets it here as she’s capable of winning.FRIDAY 18th SEPTEMBER - BALLARATRail Position: TrueCOLD SHOWER - Race 4, 2.30pm, 2000m, J Stanley, 57kgCold Shower is doing everything right ahead of his first start. He hasn’t set the world alight in his three trials in Sydney, however they were over inadequate distances and they’ve given him the right fitness grounding. He’s debuting over 2000 metres which is slightly unusual, but he’s very one paced and we just think he’d be too vulnerable over anything shorter. This way, Jett can get him rolling along in a comfortable rhythm and whilst he’ll still no doubt take improvement from this race day experience, he’s fit enough to do himself justice. He’s starting off at a realistic level and horses can improve a lot under race day conditions, so we will have a much clearer line on him after this outing and we hope to see him run a competitive race to get his career off to an encouraging start.
