Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

Friday 12th DECEMBER - CANBERRA

Rail Position: True

STATE SECRET - Race 5, 1200M, L Beuzelin 57.5kg

State Secret was unlucky to be scratched last weekend, but he's none the worse for the trip away and Adrian and I are still very excited ahead of his first career start. He has had two trials to prepare him for this run and took a clear step forward from his first to his second, where the penny really seemed to drop. These two hit outs have given him a solid fitness grounding for 1200 metres first-up, and his work at home since has been very encouraging. Canberra's a lovely fair track for his first run, and he's drawn to do no work in barrier 2 so Louis will be positive from there to try and control the race from the front. He’s a horse who will improve with race experience, but he’s well educated and forward enough in condition to do himself justice on debut. This is a very realistic starting point for him and we’re confident he can run a strong race and get his career off to a winning start.

Friday 12th DECEMBER - CANTERBURY

Rail Position: True

AIRWORTHY - Race 2, 1250M, T Clark 56.5kg

Airworthy is flying ahead of his first-up run. He had one run at Sale last preparation which was a little disappointing on face value, but that maiden has since turned into a very strong form race with four subsequent winners emerging from it and Regeneration going on to finish third in Group 3 company, so it reads a bit better in hindsight. He's returned a much stronger individual so he's really come into his own this time in, showing both speed and professionalism to win his two trials impressively. These hit outs have given him an excellent fitness base to tackle 1250 metres first-up, and he’s a naturally fast colt with a forward going attitude so we expect Tim to roll forward and take up a handy position. He should be able to find a comfortable rhythm mid-race, and the tight turning Canterbury circuit should play to his strengths. Adrian and I are very happy with how he's been training and we’re looking forward to seeing him run a bold race to get his preparation off to an exciting start. 

BOTTLE OF SHELLS - Race 3, 1100M, N Rawiller 59.0kg

Adrian and I are very excited to see Bottle Of Shells step out at the races for you tonight. She's regally bred and she's shown us plenty of promise in her trials thus far, so this race is a lovely starting point for her against her own age and sex. Her two trials at Randwick have given her a solid fitness base, and Canterbury is a tight turning track where tactical speed is important so we expect this to play to her strengths. Nash got a nice feel for her in her latest trial, so he will be positive from barrier 7 to try and land in a handy position where she can make her own luck near the speed. She’s in very good order at home and has pleased us every step of the way, so we’re looking forward to seeing her on race day and we expect her to run a bold race for you on debut.

Saturday 13th DECEMBER - ROYAL RANDWICK

Rail Position: True

FEAR NO EVIL - Race 1, 1600M, A Hyeronimus 59.0kg

Fear No Evil is delighting Adrian and I ahead of this outing. His most recent run at Newcastle was good and he wasn't beaten far, but we don't think it was a true reflection of his ability. He'd only recently travelled up from Melbourne and he didn't give the strong kick we know he's capable of, but he still fought on valiantly. He's had a bit of time to get over that run and his recent trial at Canterbury was excellent, so that's kept his fitness up to the mark nicely. This is a lovely race for him at his home track, and Adam knows him well so he'll be positive from a good draw so he can take up a handy position. This race is restricted to 3 and 4 year olds which we hope will make it slightly more winnable, and if the forecast rain materialises it won't concern us as he's got proven wet track form. He's got plenty going for him, and if he puts his best foot forward we think he can bounce back and run a very competitive race. 

BELLA MONTAGNA - Race 1, 1600M, R King 57.5kg

Bella Montagna has been delighting us ahead of this race. On face value her finishing position first-up looks a little disappointing, but it was hard to make up ground on the day and she stuck on nicely enough through the line over a trip that we knew would be on the short side for her. That effort has brought her on nicely in condition and provided a good platform to now step out to the mile, which will be much more suitable for her given she has form up to 2000 metres. Rachel will once again let her find her feet early so that she can get her into a comfortable rhythm, but we hope she'll be able to sit slightly closer to the speed over this longer distance. She has plenty of form on soft tracks so the falling rain doesn't concern us as it'll only place more of an emphasis on stamina, but this is also the first race of the day so the track won't be chopped up and should be in good order. She's got a significant amount of upside under these more optimal conditions, and we expect her to make her presence known at the finish. 

ELIO - Race 5, 1000M, A Hyeronimus 56.0kg

Elio has made a positive start to his career, and he continues to please both Adrian and me ahead of this run. He ran a very good race on debut at Newcastle, finishing fourth behind Seejaye and Mystical who have both since run well again at Wyong earlier this week. He's been back to the trials since then where he put his experience to good use to win the heat impressively, and he's only continued to improve since then. This step up to 1000 metres will suit him, and he’s a naturally fast colt with good tactical speed so Adam will be positive from barrier 5 to try and land in a forward position. He debuted at Newcastle after just one trial, so we think he's got a tremendous amount of upside here with race experience under his belt and we expect him to run a very competitive race.

COLLECT YOUR CASH - Race 6, 1800M, A Hyeronimus 60.5kg

Collect Your Cash is delighting us ahead of this contest. He was brilliant when winning first-up at Kembla, where he travelled strongly, absorbed pressure and fought hard to win so that performance has given us confidence that he’s gone to another level this preparation. He’s built up an excellent record with three wins from five starts since arriving from New Zealand, and this race is a lovely steppingstone for him. It's the same grade of race he contested at Kembla so he's got 2.5kg more on his back which won't make life easy, but we're confident he's got the improvement and upside to cope with it. Adam has a terrific association with him having won both times he's been aboard, so we're delighted that he retains the ride here and being a natural heavyweight rider it ensures your gelding carries minimal deadweight. Adam will let him flow forward from barrier 6 and land in a prominent position, and he's won over 1800 metres previously so know he'll be suited by the step up in trip. He's also got plenty of wet track form, so the rain that's currently falling also doesn't pose a problem. He’s a very happy gelding at home and he has done everything right in his recent work, so we feel this is another lovely target for him and we see no reason why he won’t run another bold race and be fighting out the finish once again. 

SLY BOOTS - Race 10, 1400M, R Bayliss 58.5kg

Sly Boots is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. He has had two good trials at Warwick Farm to prepare him for this outing, and these hit outs have given him a solid fitness grounding for 1400 metres first-up. He put together a very successful preparation last time in when winning at Canterbury before finishing an unlucky second at Wyong. He then concluded his campaign with a very good fourth at Rosehill in a strong Benchmark 78 Handicap, with the form of that working out particularly well since as the winner Travolta finished sixth in the Group 1 Metropolitan before winning the Group 3 St Leger Stakes back in the spring. He doesn't usually show much early dash in his races and 1400 metres is on the short side for him, but it's very much a starting point and a steppingstone to bigger and better things later in the campaign. Regan will let him find his feet and travel where he's comfortable, and if the leaders set a strong gallop it'll suit him. He’s also got plenty of wet track form, so the rain that's currently falling doesn't concern us either. He's come back in terrific order this time in and he's full of the joys of spring at home, so we hope to see him hitting the line strongly to get his preparation off to an exciting beginning.

Saturday 13th DECEMBER - BEAUMONT NEWCASTLE

MYSTERIOUS MASTER - Race 1, 1200M, Z Wadick 59.0kg

Mysterious Master is pleasing Adrian and I ahead of this run. He ran very well first-up at Hawkesbury where he had to contend with a tricky draw and didn’t have a great deal go his way, but he still stuck on bravely through the line so we took plenty of encouragement from that effort. That outing has sharpened him up and brought him on fitness-wise, and his recent work suggests he has taken plenty of natural improvement from the run. He’s a genuine horse with a good attitude who is only going to get better with racing, and the drop back to 1200 metres on this expansive track promises to be ideal for him. Apprentice Zac Wadick’s 1.5kg claim is of huge value at this level, and he'll get the horse rolling along in a nice rhythm from the outset. With his first-up run under his belt and further improvement to come, we’re looking forward to seeing him take a step forward and run a very competitive race here so we hope he will be hard to beat. 

Sunday 14th DECEMBER - HAWKESBURY

THE LITTLE GENERAL - Race 4, 1300M, R Bayliss 57.5kg

The Little General is pleasing Adrian and I in the lead up to this assignment. He ran well in his last start from a wide draw at Gosford in a race that didn’t really set up to suit him, but he still stuck on gamely and there was plenty of merit in the way he went through the line. That run has brought him on again fitness-wise and Hawkesbury is a bigger, more spacious track than Gosford, which is exactly what he looks to be crying out for. Stepping up to 1300 metres is another big positive, and it should give him the opportunity to get into a comfortable rhythm, travel nicely and then build into his race rather than being rushed and at his top for much of the journey. From barrier 4, Regan should be able to have him in a handy position where he can make his own luck and we think the setup of this race under these conditions will bring about improvement that can see him challenging at the finish.