Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

SATURDAY 3rd OCTOBER - RANDWICK

Rail Position: True

FLYING HOUDINI - Race 2, 12.40pm, 1000m, R Bayliss, 56kg
Flying Houdini couldn’t be pleasing us more ahead of his first career start. He was fantastic when winning his trial last week where he really knuckled down determinedly to get the better of his rivals, so it will have taught him a lot. He hasn’t missed a beat since then, and his latest gallop on Tuesday morning was exactly what he needed to put the finishing touches on him ahead of race day. He clocked the third fastest overall time at the trials which is a big positive, as the times are one of the most reliable metrics when assessing unraced horses. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 2 which is a huge asset with these newcomers as it’s a short run to the first turn and having the rail to follow is a big advantage. As such, Regan will no doubt be keen to secure the lead so that he can control things to suit himself. Whatever he achieves now he’s only going to build upon as he gets deeper into his two year old campaign, but he’s shown plenty of ability and precocity to get to this stage and if he gives a strong kick at the top of the straight it’ll take a good one to run him down.

STASIS - Race 2, 12.40pm, 1000m, A Hyeronimus, 56kg
Stasis couldn’t be pleasing us more ahead of his first career start. Last week’s trial was encouraging because whilst he didn’t have the speed to go with the winner, the penny continued to drop the further he went and he was doing his best work through the line. His heat also clocked the joint fastest overall time of the morning so it was a quickly run contest, and the times are one of the most reliable metrics when assessing unraced horses so his performance looks even better with this added context. 1000 metres is as short as he’ll ever want it but he’ll relish every yard, and if the leaders go hard and set it up for the closers it’ll play to his strengths as we expect him to be doing his best work late. Whatever he achieves now he’s only going to build upon as he gets deeper into his two year old campaign and beyond, but he’s shown plenty of ability and precocity to get to this stage so if he gets some luck in running we think he’ll be closing off very strongly.

BOURBON BEAT - Race 3, 1.15pm, 1000m, T Clark, 56kg
Bourbon Beat couldn’t be pleasing us more ahead of her first career start. She was fantastic when finishing a close second in her trial last week, and she really knuckled down to be competitive with the horse to her outside so she will have learned a lot from the experience. She hasn’t missed a beat since then, and her latest gallop on Tuesday morning was exactly what she needed to put the finishing touches on her ahead of race day. Her heat clocked the joint fastest overall time at the trials which is a big positive, as the times are one of the most reliable metrics when assessing unraced horses. She’s drawn to the outside in barrier 11 and typically this does make life harder for these unraced youngsters, however she has the speed to hopefully roll forward and get across from there to enjoy a favourable run in transit. She’ll need a bit of luck in running but if she gets it and presents with a winning run at the top of the straight, she’ll have her chance to win.

OUTBACK AFFAIR - Race 3, 1.15pm, 1000m, R Bayliss, 56kg
Outback Affair couldn’t be pleasing us more ahead of her first career start. Last week’s trial was encouraging because whilst she didn’t have the speed to go with the winner, the penny continued to drop the further she went and she was doing her best work through the line. Her heat wasn’t one of the quickest of the morning so that’s a slight reservation as time is one of the most reliable metrics when assessing unraced horses. However, she’s open to a huge amount of improvement with the benefit of that experience and a lot can change on race day. 1000 metres is as short as she’ll ever want it but she’ll relish every yard, and if the leaders go hard and set it up for the closers it’ll play to her strengths as we expect her to be doing her best work late. Whatever she achieves now she’s only going to build upon as she gets deeper into her two year old campaign and beyond, but she’s shown plenty of ability and precocity to get to this stage so if she gets some luck in running we think she’ll be closing off very strongly.

RUNAWAY DIVA - Race 3, 1.15pm, 1000m, R King, 56kg
Runaway Diva couldn’t be pleasing us more ahead of her first career start. She was fantastic when winning her trial last week where she really knuckled down determinedly to get the better of her rivals, so it will have taught her a lot. She hasn’t missed a beat since then, and her latest gallop on Tuesday morning was exactly what she needed to put the finishing touches on her ahead of race day. She clocked the second fastest overall time of the fillies’ heats at the trials which is a big positive, as the times are one of the most reliable metrics when assessing unraced horses. She’s drawn slightly wide in barrier in 9 which can make life tough for these inexperienced youngsters and it’s a short run to the first turn, but she showed good gate speed in the trial and Rachel will do her utmost to try and find her way into a more favourable inside position. She’ll need a bit of luck in running but if she gets it and presents with a winning run at the top of the straight, she’ll have her chance to win.

SAVAGRAM - Race 4, 1.50pm, 1600m, T Clark, 56.5kg
Savagram has contested a couple of tough races since breaking his maiden at Canterbury and he’s just been found out by it. 3 year old races at this time of year are extremely competitive as if you want to race against your own age group you’re largely forced into Stakes races. As such, everybody has the same idea so you come up against some very talented and progressive types. After his last run, Tim felt he’s just been chasing his tail a bit in high pressure 1300 and 1400 metre races the last twice so we’re looking forward to stretching him out to the mile here. He’s bred to appreciate it and the slightly steadier tempo of this longer race should help him travel comfortably in the middle stages, thus enabling him to show more of a turn of foot when asked to go and win his race. He’s taking on some progressive and unexposed types here so it won’t be easy, but this is often quite a winnable race and he fits the profile of horses we’ve won it with previously so we’re confident he can rise to the challenge and run a big race for you all.

THE EUPHRATES - Race 7, 3.35pm, 2400m, T Clark, 59kg
The Euphrates gave us such a thrill when winning the Group 2 Kingston Town so determinedly last time. He thoroughly deserved to do so, and we’re so delighted to see him putting it all together for you. The Kingston Town Stakes is a tried-and-true pathway to this contest, and the last two horses to win both races in the same season were Herculian Prince in 2010 and Just Fine in 2023, both trained at Tulloch Lodge so Adrian and I know what it takes to win this race and your gelding more than fits the criteria. He’s tough, he’s honest, and he has an abundance of stamina so he’ll relish stretching out to 2400 metres here which is a big tick. The winning weight range for this race typically spans 50-56kg, favouring emerging stayers and lighter-weighted runners rather than topweights, though the race has completely changed complexion this year with it being dropped from Group 1 status to Group 2. Since 2000, no horse has carried more than 56.5kg to win this race so with 59kg on his back historically he’s up against it and conceding weight to all bar one of his rivals isn’t going to be easy. The weight spread is only 6kg this year for the very first time though, and class counts for a lot. Adrian and I see no reason why he won’t be right there at the finish.

FULLY LIT - Race 8, 4.10pm, 1600m, W Costin, 51kg
Fully Lit is a delight to train and he thoroughly deserved to get his head back in front with a fantastic win in the Group 3 Cameron Handicap last time. He’s followed the same pathway to this race as he did last year, where he found only the superstar Autumn Glow too good for him in the run to the line. However, last year it was the ninth run of his preparation whereas he’s only fourth-up this time so he comes into it on fresher legs. He’s also only got 1kg more on his back this year due to Ceolwulf being so highly rated at the top of the field, so he looks primed for another big run. He’s drawn well in barrier 8 and Winona got a terrific tune out of him last year so we’re delighted to have her aboard once more, and we see no reason why he won’t be right there at the finish once again.

SATURDAY 3rd OCTOBER - FLEMINGTON

Rail Position: +9M Entire

CAMPALDINO - Race 7, 3.50pm, 2520m, J Childs, 58kg
Campaldino has come through his latest run at Caulfield in good order. He looked as though he was going to drop right out but he maintained the same pace to the line and he was only beaten 4.24 lengths in the end. He’s taken further benefit from the outing and Jordan was most pleased with him on Monday, saying he’s improved markedly and I must say I agree. I’ve been down in Melbourne all week and he’s carrying good condition, has put on muscle tone and his coat is gleaming so he’s certainly ready to make his mark here. Jordan won this race for us in 2024 on Just Fine whom he rode enterprisingly from the front and judged the sectionals to perfection, so we’re delighted to have him aboard. He was positive on your gelding from the wide gate at Caulfield and he’s drawn 20 here which is a bit of a headache, so he will once again have to be positive from there to get across and let him travel where he’s comfortable. He’s going to relish stretching out to 2500 metres and he should be much less vulnerable to speedier types over this distance, so we know it has the potential to bring about plenty of improvement. It's been raining cats and dogs in Melbourne this week so the track is currently rated a Heavy 9, but he's got plenty of wet track form and is a proven mudlark so this doesn't concern us one bit. This race is a ‘win and you’re in’ qualifier for the Melbourne Cup so it’s very competitive, but let’s get our rosary beads out and pray that it happens.

SIR DELIUS - Race 8. 4.25pm, 2000m, C Williams, 59kg
Sir Delius has come through his first-up run in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes in great shape. We knew he was slightly up against it first-up and so it proved, as the three very talented horses that finished ahead of him all had race fitness on their side. However, he was incredibly brave in defeat and he kept battling all the way to the line so he lost few admirers in defeat. He’s taken plenty of improvement from it so he strips fitter here, and he’s won all bar one of his races over 2000 metres since arriving in Australia so we know he’s going to relish getting out in trip. He was victorious in this corresponding race when third-up last year so he’s got one run fewer under his belt this time around, but he doesn’t lack for fitness or conditioning so we aren’t concerned by this. It's been raining cats and dogs in Melbourne this week so the track is currently rated a Heavy 9, but he's got plenty of wet track form in Europe and he won his first race in Australia at Doomben on a heavy track so this doesn't concern us. His gallop on Tuesday morning was excellent, and Adrian and I deliberately kept it short and sharp which he seemed to really enjoy. Craig knows your boy very well and he’ll ride him like the best horse in the race which he is on the ratings, and we expect him to be hard to beat.

SATURDAY 3rd OCTOBER - NEWCASTLE

Rail Position: +2M Entire

CAVIAR - Race 1, 1.34pm, 1500m, L Beuzelin, 59kg
Caviar was disappointing at Kensington last time. However, he led on a day when there was a strong headwind and this might’ve just left him vulnerable late on. Prior to this he’d placed at both Gosford and Newcastle, so he was racing consistently in this grade and under more suitable conditions there’s no reason to think he won’t bounce back here and be challenging at the finish.

MONDAY 5th OCTOBER - WARWICK FARM

Rail Position: True

FANTAZY MAN - Race 3, 2.35pm, 2110m, A Hyeronimus, 60.5kg
Fantazy Man was disappointing when resuming at this track. However, the race didn’t unfold as we would have liked it to and we learned a lot about him, so we’re prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt given it was his first run in the country. He’s taken improvement from the outing so he’s fitter and tighter in condition here, and he sticks to 2100 metres for now. Adam will let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 6 and we expect him to relax and settle a bit better this time around now that he’s had a run. This isn’t the strongest race for the grade, and we certainly expect to see an improved performance.

ALBANY ROAD - Race 8, 5.30pm, 1100m, T Clark, 59.5kg
Albany Road ran a great race to finish third at Canterbury last time. Whatalegacy was a touch too good on the day and he just got collared for second in the run to the line, so 1100 metres certainly seems to see him out and he sticks to this distance for now. Tim will ride the race as he finds it from barrier 11, either rolling forward and getting across if he’s able to do so or taking a sit and getting some cover and he’s ready to run another competitive race. He’s better off at the weights with Whatalegacy here which will help, and if he gets some luck in running we’re sure he’ll run his usual honest race.