Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

SATURDAY 27th JUNE - ROSEHILL

Rail Position: +6M Entire

ALBANY ROAD, Race 3, 1100m, 12.10pm, Z Wadick (2kg), 58.5kg
Albany Road is delighting us ahead of his return. His two trials at Warwick Farm this time in have been excellent, so they’ve primed him for this first-up run. He was very progressive last preparation in winning two of his three starts in town, so whilst he’s unproven in a Saturday grade metropolitan race we are confident that he’s got the upside to rise to the challenge. He’s twice a winner over this distance so we know he relishes it, and we pinpointed this race for him upon the conclusion of his last campaign because it ticks a lot of boxes, including being restricted to his own age group, so it’s always satisfying when a plan comes to fruition. He’s drawn wide in barrier 13 but we learned last preparation that he’s effective coming from behind so this doesn’t concern us, and Rosehill’s an expansive track so fingers crossed he doesn’t encounter any trouble in running. Zac’s a very capable apprentice who takes a valuable 2kg off his back which is a huge asset in this grade, so he certainly has a lot going for him and we expect him to be right there at the finish.

LADY INVICTUS, Race 3, 1100m, 12.10pm, R Bayliss, 54.5kg
Lady Invictus gave us such a thrill when winning so dominantly first-up at Warwick Farm. The fourth and fifth placed horses were beaten again at Canterbury last week and the eighth placed horse has since won at Nowra, so the form hasn’t exactly stacked up yet but the authority of her victory suggests she’s capable of holding her own on this step up in grade. She has taken plenty of improvement from that outing so she strips fitter here, and she’s got plenty of speed so she sticks to 1100 metres for now which seems to suit her ideally. Barrier 8 means Regan is going to have to make an early decision to either press on and cross the field or slot in and get some cover, so he’ll assess how she lands in the run and act accordingly but we envisage her skipping forward as she did last time to make her own luck from the front. She’s lacking the race experience of some of her rivals but she’s a talented filly with plenty of upside, and we hope to see her saluting the judge once more.

CENTENARIO, Race 6, 2400m, 1.55pm, Z Wadick, 52kg
Centenario ran another very honest race when finishing third at Kensington earlier this month. He relished the step up to 2400 metres so he gets that again here, and this bigger track can only be a positive for him. He’s a horse we’ve ridden both close to the speed and with cover, so Zac will assess the early speed of the race before deciding but he’ll try to be slightly positive earlier to get across from barrier 11 and establish himself in a favourable position. He’s up in grade so he’s taking on more talented opposition and it’s not going to be easy, but he drops in the weights to 52kg as a result and as they say weight stops trains, so he’ll hardly know he has a rider on his back. The continuous rainfall over the past 24 hours may also secure him his favoured wet track so that combined with the light weight is a lovely combination. He’s a very capable stayer and if the cards fall his way, we see no reason why he won’t be right there at the finish.

SATURDAY 27th JUNE - NEWCASTLE

Rail Position: +5M Entire

COBRA CLUB, Race 9, 1200m, 3.35pm, L Beuzelin, 60kg
Cobra Club is delighting us ahead of his return. His two trials have been encouraging so they’ve given him the right fitness grounding, and he’s ready to rock and roll here. He won his maiden impressively over a mile in the spring so 1200 metres is very much a starting point for him, and we don’t expect him to be hitting his straps until he gets out over slightly further as his preparation progresses. With that said, he’s starting off at a winnable level and Louis will be positive from barrier 2 to try and get him rolling along in a prominent position on or close to the speed. Newcastle’s an expansive track which will suit him and whilst he finished down the field in his only previous attempt on a wet track at Canterbury, we don’t think that was the sole reason for him underperforming there so we’re confident he’ll get through it. His Foreman reports that he’s thriving in the stable so he couldn’t be in better order, and we expect to see him hitting the line strongly to get his campaign off to an encouraging start.

MONDAY 29th JUNE - SCONE

Rail Position: +7m 1000m - 400m, +5m Remainder

CELESTIAL DEAL, Race 5, 1100m, 3.20pm, L Beuzelin, 57kg
Celestial Deal is delighting Adrian and myself ahead of her first start. She has had two trials this time in at Warwick Farm to prepare her for this, and six career trials in total so she’s well educated and knows her job. These two hit outs have given her a solid fitness base and educational grounding for 1100 metres first-up, and Scone’s an expansive track so Louis will be positive from barrier 5 to try and roll forward into a handy position where she can make her own luck on or close to the lead. She’s shown ability and she’s kicking off at a winnable level, so we expect her to run a very competitive race for you to get her career off to an exciting start.