Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

WEDNESDAY 29th JULY - KENSINGTON

Rail Position: True

EVICTION NOTICE, Race 3, 1100m, 4.00pm, T Clark, 56kg
Eviction Notice got his preparation off to a very encouraging start at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago. He did nothing wrong and time will likely tell that he was beaten by a very smart horse, so he didn’t lose any admirers. He’s taken plenty of natural improvement from that so he strips fitter here, and he’s reunited with Tim who has ridden him twice previously and knows him well. He’s got the speed to roll forward from barrier 5 and make his own luck on the front end, and whilst there are some promising types in opposition he’s got race fitness on his side and we expect him to be hard to beat.

CHAMPAGNE HERO, Race 5, 1550m, 3.10pm, T Clark, 58.5kg
Champagne Hero was incredibly unlucky not to win at Warwick Farm last time. He did plenty of work in the run but still fought in extremely gamely, so he did very well to only be beaten by a head at the post. He’s taken further improvement from that, and whilst the very slight step back in trip to 1550 metres isn’t out usual preference this is a very suitable race for him and we think he will be able to cope with it. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1 which hopefully means there won’t be a repeat of last time where he was forced to work hard early, so Tim should be able to flow forward and get into a handy position where he can roll along and conserve energy in the run. His home track should suit his racing pattern and he looks ready to win third-up, so we expect him to be hard to beat.

CONCHIERO, Race 5, 1550m, 3.10pm, Z Wadick (2kg), 61kg
Conchiero was up in grade at Randwick last time so it was always going to be tougher, but we hoped he might’ve finished a bit closer to the winner than he did. However, it wasn’t a bad run and he’s certainly got the credentials to be competitive in that grade in time. We’re dropping him back to the midweeks here so he carries weight as a result, but Zac takes a handy 2kg off his back. We’re also putting the blinkers back on him which he’s won in previously, and these might just give him the focus he needs to recapture his best form. He should be able to roll forward from barrier 9 and get across to settle either on or just in behind the lead, and he raced very well at this track two back so fingers crossed he can bounce back and feature in the finish.

ALBANY ROAD, Race 6, 1000m, 3.45pm, R Bayliss, 59.5kg
Albany Road trialled brilliantly at Randwick last week. Regan kept a tight hold of him and didn’t ask him for maximum effort, but he glided through the pack like a knife through butter in the last 100 metres and it was the perfect hit out for him to keep his fitness up to the mark between runs. While we prefer not to drop back in trip, with showers due later this week, we wanted to grab this opportunity with both hands. We’ve been waiting for drier tracks with him and fingers crossed we’ve done it, because the track’s rated a Soft 6 at the time of writing and with a dry forecast today, we hope it will dry out further which will suit him very well. Regan knows him inside out and he’ll ride him quietly from barrier 9 and let him find his feet over this 1000 metre trip which he hasn’t raced over for quite some time, but he’s been effective at 1100 metres so we’re confident he’ll adapt. He’s won at this track previously which adds further confidence, so if he gets the luck in running he’ll need coming from behind we hope he can find his way back into the Winner’s Circle.

THURSDAY 30th JULY - KENSINGTON

Rail Position: +0.5M Entire

COBRA CLUB, Race 5, 1450m, 2.55pm, R Bayliss, 60kg
We knew that 1200 metres first-up would be on the short side for Cobra Club and so it proved, with him doing his best work late to finish a never nearer fourth. However, he needed that hit out to enable us to get him to the right trip and he’s going to be much better suited by 1450 metres on this bigger track. Regan will be positive from barrier 9 to try and sit a bit closer to the speed than last time, and he should travel much more comfortably in the run over this longer distance. This improving track conditions are also in his favour so he ticks plenty of boxes and has a huge amount of upside second-up, so we expect him to be right there at the finish.