Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

FRIDAY 9th OCTOBER - PORT MACQUARIE

Rail Position: True

BEAR ON THE LOOSE - Race 7, 4.55pm, 2000m, L Beuzelin, 58kg
Bear On The Loose was bitterly disappointing when resuming at Rosehill a fortnight ago. Nothing came to light to explain that performance so we were left scratching our heads somewhat, as he’s always been a very consistent horse. As such, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and put a line through it because we know he’s much better than that. He’s fitter with the run under his belt and this step up to 2000 metres should suit him. The track’s rated a Soft 7 at the time of acceptances so we hope it doesn’t dry out too much because whilst he’s got form on dry tracks, he does seem to prefer getting his toe in. Louis will get him rolling along from barrier 6 to try and make every post a winner, and your gelding will certainly be given a strong ride by him so fingers crossed he can bounce back because on his best form he’d win this.

SATURDAY 10th OCTOBER - CAULFIELD

Rail Position: True

SURFIN' BIRD - Race 3, 1.25pm, 1600m, J Childs, 57kg
Surfin’ Bird was fantastic when resuming at Rosehill. The winner’s a Group 1 winner and the first three all had the advantage of race fitness on their side, so she excelled herself to finish such a close fourth. She strips fitter with that run under her belt and she’s since taken the journey to Flemington in her stride, like the professional she is. She’s spent plenty of time there previously and she has lots of winning form in the southern capital, including at Caulfield which can be a tricky track, so we’ve no concerns whatsoever about her being able to replicate her form between states. She’s going to relish stretching out to the mile and whilst she’s conceding weight to all bar one of her rivals, she’s the joint top rated mare in the field and outside of On Display she’s got a lot in hand over the rest of the field on official ratings, albeit there are some unexposed types in opposition. However, she’s a very talented mare and this is the ideal steppingstone for her, so we expect her to be very hard to beat.

CAMPALDINO - Race 4, 2.00pm, 2400m, J Childs, 58kg
Campaldino ran another honest race in defeat last weekend. He did everything right in the run and the wind didn’t make life easy for him, but as Jordan said he just kept grinding away to the line. He’s got another sticky gate to contend with here and he hasn’t had much luck with barriers this preparation, but he’s shown enough speed to get across in his last couple of starts so he should be able to do so again here. Jordan knows him well so he’ll ensure he gets him rolling along at the right time because as he said last weekend, he doesn’t have much change up in speed so he’ll be suited by a genuinely run race. This is another competitive race but he’s going better than his recent finishing positions suggest, and we’re confident he can run a big race.

TOMATO TOASTIE - Race 5, 2.35pm, 1200m, J Childs, 56kg
Tomato Toastie is delighting us ahead of her return. She’s taken everything in her stride since heading south to Flemington and she looks a picture of health ahead of this outing. She was progressive last preparation when twice placing in Stakes races, including when first-up over this distance at Randwick when she rattled home from the back of the pack. As such, whilst she’s kicking off in a very competitive race and will improve as she gets over ground later in her campaign, we know she can be effective fresh at this distance which adds confidence. Jordan will let her land where she’s comfortable from barrier 7 and ride the race accordingly, and whilst some of these might be a bit sharp for her first-up we hope to see her hitting the line strongly to signal she’s in good order and get her preparation off to a positive start.

SATURDAY 10th OCTOBER - ROSEHILL

Rail Position: +2M Entire

PLAGIARISM - Race 5, 2.55pm, 1400m, R Bayliss, 57kg
Plagiarism lost nothing in defeat when finishing seventh in the fiercely competitive Group 1 Golden Rose last time. The winner was too good for all of them but he was less than three lengths from the second placegetter, so we were very proud of his effort and he’s as tough as teak. He’s come through the run in wonderful order and he’s holding his form brilliantly at home, so whilst he’s had some tough runs he’s showing no signs of training off. This is easier than the Golden Rose and he’s the second highest rated horse in the field, so he has excellent credentials. Regan knows him inside out and he’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1 so he should be able to race on or close to the speed, and we expect him to be right there at the finish.

REVENGEANCE - Race 5, 2.55pm, 1400m, A Hyeronimus, 57kg
Revengeance took a big step forward from his first-up run when finishing a good sixth in the Group 2 Run To The Rose last time, where he wasn’t beaten far. That form’s been well and truly franked with the first three horses Warwoven, St Gotthard and Under Focus all going on to fill the first three placings in the Group 1 Golden Rose, so this gives us added confidence heading into this race. He’s untested beyond 1200 metres but we expect him to appreciate the extra 200 metres here, and we’re confident it’ll unlock further improvement. Adam got a great tune out of him last time so we’re delighted he’s aboard again, and he’ll let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 6 and ride the race accordingly. He’s the top rated horse in the field and he’s building towards a peak performance, so whilst this won’t be easy we are confident that he’s got what it takes to be challenging at the finish.

BLESSED EAGLE - Race 6, 3.35pm, 1200m, C Schofield, 56.5kg
Blessed Eagle couldn’t be in better shape ahead of this run. He blitzed his opposition when winning again at Warwick Farm last time, so whilst this is a big jump in grade he has won two of his three career starts and he more than deserves the chance to prove himself. Chad got a terrific tune out of him last time so we’re delighted to have him aboard again, and he’s drawn well in barrier 4 so he should be able to use his early speed to land in a prominent spot and be well positioned in the run. He’s taking on some well-performed and more seasoned opposition so we’ll know exactly where he stands afterwards, but we think he’s got the ability to give this a good shake.

OUR EMPEROR - Race 6, 3.35pm, 1200m, R Bayliss, 56.5kg
Our Emperor was disappointing when resuming over 1100 metres at this track last month. We knew he’d need the run but we still expected him to be more competitive, so he’s got a bit to prove here. On a positive note, he’s taken good improvement from the outing so he certainly strips fitter here, and we think he'll be well suited by the step up to 1200 metres. He’s drawn to the outside in barrier 9 and there’s a fair amount of speed in the race, so he maps to settle in midfield and Regan should be able to track across and slot in to enjoy a smooth run in transit. This is a tough race but we haven’t lost faith in him and we think he’s capable of taking a big step forward now that he’s got race fitness under his belt, so fingers crossed he can be very competitive.

SATURDAY 10th OCTOBER - KEMBLA

Rail Position: True

WAIHEKE ROSE - Race 1, 2.05pm, 1500m, W Costin, 57.5kg
Waiheke Rose was a bit disappointing when finishing fifth at Newcastle last time as we thought she’d be hard to beat. However, she was ultimately only beaten a little over a length and she’s simply looking for further which she now gets so that’s a big positive. She had a few days on the water walker following that run which freshened her up nicely, and she wore blinkers in her gallop on Thursday morning which sharpened her up nicely so she retains these for raceday to ensure she’s entirely focused on the task at hand. There’s no better rider at the provincials on a Saturday than Winona so we’re delighted to have her aboard, and she’ll get her rolling along from barrier 6 to try and make every post a winner. She’s got plenty of ability and we’re confident that the short freshen up she had plus the addition of headgear will help guide her into the Winner’s Circle.