Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

FRIDAY 4th SEPTEMBER - WYONG

Rail Position: True

BELLA MONTAGNA - Race 6, 3.55pm, 2100m, R King, 54kg
Bella Montagna is delighting us ahead of her return. In her first trial she was simply outsprinted by some talented Stakes performers, and whilst she was last again in her second trial she wasn’t beaten too far. Resuming over 2100 metres isn’t usually in our rule book, however, she retains some residual fitness from her Queensland campaign where she last raced in mid-June and she’s generally been a lot dourer this preparation, so we aren’t concerned by it especially around this tight turning track. This is not a strong edition of this race, as whilst the top horse Eliyass is rated 111 the next best is 97, followed by your mare at 90 with the rest of the field then ranging from 89-59, so this also gave us the confidence to kick her off here. Moreover, victory in this race would boost her rating sufficiently to enable her to get into more competitive races second-up and beyond, which she needs to be doing if we’re to get her to the Group 2 Metropolitan Handicap as her Grand Final. Rachel knows her extremely well so we’re delighted to have her aboard, and she’s a mare that’s generally ridden with some cover so Rachel will position her accordingly and try to conserve her energy mid-race before unleashing her from the 800 metres onwards. She’s got a couple of things to overcome but we think she can do it, and we expect her to be right there at the finish.

SATURDAY 5th SEPTEMBER - HAWKESBURY

Rail Position: +2m 1100m - 450m, True remainder

AKATOA - Race 2, 1.19pm, 1000m, L Beuzelin, 57kg
Akatoa is pleasing us ahead of her first start. Her first trial was very good and she probably found herself against some slightly better horses in her latest one but she wasn’t beaten too far, and these hit outs have given her a solid fitness base and educational grounding for 1000 metres first-up. Hawkesbury is a very fair track that regularly suits our horses’ racing patterns, so we expect Louis to be positive early from barrier 5 to try and have her in a handy position where she can make her own luck on or close to the lead. She’s been a straightforward and professional filly thus far, and this temperament will take her a long way. She's shown some ability but she’s starting off in a competitive enough maiden which you’d expect for the money on offer, so it won’t be easy but we hope she’s capable of making her presence known in this grade to get her career off to an exciting beginning.

LADY CAPITALIST - Race 6, 3.39pm, 1400m, L Beuzelin, 58kg
Lady Capitalist was plain when resuming at Wyong. She had to a bit of work from her barrier but we still wanted to see more, so we’re hoping she just needed the run. She steps up in distance here which should enable her to put herself into the race and travel comfortably, and if she’s still going well at the top of the straight she’ll have every chance to kick and put her best possible foot forward. Our suspicion is that she has her limitations, but we’re prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt and if we don’t see a big improvement here, we can consider her future.

WENDELL - Race 8, 4.55pm, 1400m, A McLucas, 56.5kg
Wendell didn’t go on from his promising first-up run at Wyong when finishing sixth at Warwick Farm last time. It was a tougher grade but his finishing effort was still a bit disappointing, and physically and mentally he might still be a preparation away. As such, we’re dropping him back in class to try and give him the best possible chance of winning. Amy knows how to ride our horses effectively at this level so she’ll flow forward from his lovely barrier in 2 to try and get control of the race, and hopefully he can capitalise on this easier grade and prove hard to beat.

TEMPESTUOUS - Race 8, 4.55pm, 1400m, Z Wadick, 59kg
Tempestuous might’ve needed his first-up run a bit more than we perhaps thought. He found them a bit sharp for him over 1100 metres and he was doing all of his best work late, so he’s going to relish stretching out to 1400 metres here and the steadier tempo of this longer race should also enable him to settle a bit closer to the speed than he did last time. He strips fitter here and mentally he’s a lot more switched on too, so he’s ready to take a big step forward and we’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t win or go very close here.

SATURDAY 5th SEPTEMBER - RANDWICK

Rail Position: +3M Entire

CAMPALDINO - Race 9, 4.35pm, 1600m, T Clark, 59kg
Campaldino is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. He’s had three trials so he’s as fit as can be, and he’s training very well ahead of his first-up run so we couldn’t have him in better order. We go into his first-up run knowing that 1600 metres is well short of his best, and he’s almost certainly going to find a few of them too slick for him. However, it’s a suitable starting point to give him a good pipe opener and from here we can get him out to 2000 metres and beyond which is where he’s going to really hit his straps deeper in his campaign. He’s drawn to the outside in barrier 10 and he maps to race with cover, so Tim will let him land where he’s comfortable and try and get him rolling along in a good rhythm mid-race. His main targets are still ahead of him so we’re not expecting him to break records here, but we do expect to see him hitting the line strongly to get his preparation off to an encouraging start.

THE EUPHRATES - Race 9, 4.35pm, 1600m, R Bayliss, 59kg
Well, patience has certainly been the name of the game with The Euphrates since he arrived from Europe so Adrian and I are just thrilled to see him finally lining up at the races for you all. He’s had three trials so he’s as fit as can be, and he’s training very well ahead of his first-up run so we couldn’t have him in better order. He broke his maiden in Ireland as a 2 year old over 1700 metres and his two subsequent wins were over 2400 and 3400 metres, so this horse is an out and out stayer. As such, we go into his first-up run knowing that 1600 metres is well short of his best, and he’s almost certainly going to find a few of them too slick for him. However, it’s a suitable starting point to give him a good pipe opener and from here we can get him out to 2000 metres and beyond which is where he’s going to really hit his straps deeper in his campaign. He’s drawn well in barrier 4 so Regan will be as positive as he can to try and sit close to the speed, but there may be one or two a bit speedier than him so he’ll ultimately let him land where he’s comfortable. He raced in headgear in Ireland so we’ve put blinkers on him to ensure he’s as sharp as possible, and we hope to see him hitting the line strongly to get his preparation off to an encouraging start.

WATSON - Race 10, 5.10pm, 1600m, R King, 54kg
Watson ran his heart out to finish a brilliant fourth in the Goulburn Cup last time. He’s such an honest gelding who always tries his best, and this attitude is going to take him a long way. His rating went up a couple of points as a result, so we’re left with the option to either run him in a Benchmark 78 race where he’ll carry a lot of weight or roll the dice in a race like this where he’s taking on better horses but is down in the weights with just 54kg on his back. Given he’s a progressive gelding who we think has more improvement to come, we’re more inclined to roll the dice in a tougher race where he has less weight as we think it gives him the best chance of being competitive. He’s drawn to do no work in barrier 1 so Rachel will be positive from there to try and land on the speed, and the biggest query is going to be distance because he’s untested beyond 1400 metres. However, he wasn’t conceding ground late at Goulburn last time and he’s now fourth-up in the preparation, so he’s becoming slightly dourer and now is the right time to give it a go. He’s got speed but he’s also a relaxed gelding who conserves energy in his races, and our heart rate data in his gallops at home suggests the mile is within range so we’re confident he’ll give himself every chance of seeing it out. This is a competitive race as you’d expect around carnival time, but if he can keep raising the bar then we see no reason why he won’t be right there at the finish once more.