Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

SATURDAY 7th NOVEMBER - HAWKESBURY

Rail Position: True

SUR NOVA CENTAURI - Race 1, 1.20pm, 1400m, L Beuzelin 59.0kg

Sur Nova Centauri is delighting Adrian and me ahead of this assignment. He has made steady improvement through his two recent trials at Randwick, which have given him a strong fitness grounding for Saturday's race. He raced prominently over 1500 metres at Newcastle in his previous Australian start, and we feel the 1400 metres will suit him well at this stage of his preparation. He has drawn barrier 1, which should allow Louis to make use of his natural speed and settle in a forward position where he can make his own luck. He has been pleasing us with his work at home and we expect him to run a very competitive race for you.

KOIBITO - Race 2, 1.55pm, 1400m, L Beuzelin 58.0kg

Adrian and I are delighted with how Koibito is going ahead of Saturday's race. She brings some good city maiden form into this, having finished a close second over 1550 metres at Canterbury last preparation, and she was only narrowly beaten after leading over 1250 metres at Newcastle two starts ago. She didn't quite finish off as we had hoped over 1600 metres at Warwick Farm last time, so we feel coming back to 1400 metres will be much more suitable. She has drawn beautifully in barrier 4, which should allow Louis to use her natural gate speed to take up a prominent position and control the race from the front. She is going a month between runs, which is why we toyed with the idea of trialling her, but she has been working particularly well at home so we expect her to be very competitive in this company and hope to see her go one better for you.

MAJOR BEEL - Race 7, 5.15pm, 1500m, L Beuzelin 57.5kg

Adrian and I are pleased with how Major Beel has progressed since his first run back at Randwick, where he finished seventh over 1600 metres after a lengthy break. That run has brought his fitness on nicely, and he has continued to please us with his work at home. Although he will appreciate stepping out over further as he gets deeper into his campaign, we feel he is capable of being competitive over 1500 metres at this stage of his preparation. He has drawn nicely in barrier 6, so Louis should be able to make use of his natural speed to settle in a prominent position and ensure a genuine tempo throughout. This is a competitive Listed race, but he has the class to measure up against this opposition, and with natural improvement to come second up, we expect him to give a good account of himself.

SATURDAY 7th NOVEMBER - ROSEHILL

Rail Position: True

BELLA MONTAGNA - Race 3, 1.50pm, 2600m, R King 54.0kg

Bella Montagna is in very good order ahead of this run. Giving her the extra time has paid dividends, and whilst this isn’t an easy race it’s over the right distance and she’s going to be well suited by the big, galloping track at Flemington. Rachel knows her well so we’re delighted to have her back aboard, and she’ll slot in from barrier 12 and let her travel comfortably in the run. She’s taking on some highly rated and well credentialed rivals but she’s a dour stayer, so if they go a good gallop it’ll aid her chance and we hope to see her challenging at the finish.

CRITERIA - Race 3, 1.35pm, 2400m, R Bayliss 54.0kg

Criteria has been a revelation since getting out in trip this preparation. If we’d told you after his first-up placing at Queanbeyan that he’d be racing at Rosehill on a Saturday, you’d have laughed. However, he’s gone from strength to strength since getting out in trip and he ran an excellent race in defeat at Warwick Farm last time. He gets a nice pull in the weights with Savvy Spy here, and he’ll relish every yard of the 2400 metres on this expansive track. Regan knows him well after his last two starts so he’ll settle him where he’s comfortable from barrier 6, and he should enjoy an even run in transit. This is a step up in grade but it’s a small field and those at the bottom are rated very lowly, so it looks to be between the top five on the card. He’s fit and racing excellently, so we see no reason why he won’t give this a good shake and fingers crossed he’ll be fighting out the finish.

SAVVY SPY - Race 3, 1.35pm, 2400m, T Clark 55.5kg

Savvy Spy gave us such a thrill when notching a well-deserved city-grade victory at Warwick Farm last time. He’s now strung together two wins in a row so his confidence is sky high, and it was also particularly pleasing to see him tick the 2400 metre box last time. As Adrian mentioned post-race, he’s still learning his craft and getting him to settle in his races is key as he has a tendency to want to get on with it. However, Tim learned a lot about him last time so he’ll ride him in a similar fashion and try to switch him off in the early stages so that he can relax and conserve energy mid-race. This is a step up in grade and he’s also gone up in the weights so it’s going to be tougher, but he’s still very unexposed as a stayer so we’re confident that he’s got a lot more upside and we think he’ll be hard to beat once more.

THRICE - Race 4, 2.10pm, 1800m, T Clark 60.5kg

On the face of it, Thrice was a bit plain when resuming at Randwick a fortnight ago. However, he was first-up over an inadequate trip and it was a competitive race, with four of the runners being rated more than 100. As such, this represents a big drop in grade so whilst he’s got top weight, he’s taking on much easier opposition. He’s also going to be suited by stretching out to 1800 metres, which as we previously mentioned isn’t as far as we’d like it to be. However, the option to get him over 2000 metres or beyond is not currently available to us so at least it’s a step in the right direction. Tim will try to be positive from barrier 11 to get him rolling along on or close to the speed as he’ll be suited by a genuinely run race, and we hope the easier grade of race and longer trip combine to bring about a much-improved performance.

WITKOWIN - Race 6, 3.30pm, 1100m, R Bayliss 54.5kg

Witkowin is thriving ahead of her first start. She won her only trial very impressively and her time was 1.5 seconds quicker than the other two year old heat over the same distance, which is a notable difference. She’s taken huge improvement from the outing and trip away from home, so whilst she’s conceding race experience to her key rivals we aren’t too concerned because she’s been a consummate professional in everything she’s done thus far. Regan will be positive from barrier 10 to try and utilise her early speed to land on or close to the lead, as we ideally don’t want to be caught too wide in the run and nor do we want to concede too much ground to the leaders. She’s going to require a bit of luck, but her natural ability should bring her to the fore and we expect her to be fighting out the finish.

MONDAY 8th NOVEMBER - SCONE

Rail Position: True

SHANTI - Race 2, 3.30pm, 1600m, W Costin 58.0kg

Adrian and I are delighted with how Shanti is progressing ahead of Monday's race. She showed good improvement at Newcastle last time out, racing prominently throughout and fighting on strongly to finish second over 1350 metres. Stepping up to 1600 metres for the first time will suit her, and the blinkers really switched her on last start, so she retains them here. She has drawn nicely in barrier 5, which will allow Winona, who knows her well having ridden her last time out, to use her natural speed and settle in a prominent position where she can make her own luck. She has continued to thrive in her work at home, and with further natural improvement to come, we expect her to be right in the finish and hopefully go one better for you.

MIDNIGHT REVOLT - Race 5, 3.30pm, 1100m, L Beuzelin 55.5kg

Adrian and I are delighted with how Midnight Revolt is progressing ahead of her debut. She has had two trials at Randwick in preparation for her first start, which have given her valuable experience and brought her fitness right up to the mark. She has continued to please us with her work at home, and we feel 1100 metres is a very suitable starting point for her. She has drawn barrier 11, so Louis will look to be positive early and bring her across into a handy position where she can settle into a comfortable rhythm. She is a filly who will continue to improve with race experience, but she is well prepared for this assignment and we expect her to run a very competitive race for you.