Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

THURSDAY 15th JANUARY - BEAUMONT NEWCASTLE

Rail Position: True

WILLINGHAM - Race 1, 1.50pm, 1200m, R Bayliss, 56.5kg
Willingham ran a very brave race first-up at Nowra. He was caught wide throughout and covered more ground than Mills and Boon in the process, but he still fought on bravely to finish fourth. He’s taken plenty of improvement from that so he strips fitter here, and whilst he sticks to 1200 metres this is a more expansive track and we expect him to be well suited by it. Regan will be positive from barrier 10 to try and get across into a more favourable inside position, and if he can enjoy a smooth run in transit we see no reason why he won’t be challenging at the finish.

SIEBERT - Race 7, 5.35pm, 1350m, R Bayliss, 59kg
Siebert has done everything right this preparation and comes into this with an unblemished record of two wins from two starts. You mustn’t underestimate how difficult it is for three-year-old fillies to beat older mares at any level, so to see her beat several of them with such dominance at Gosford last time was most pleasing. She’s continued to thrive since then and she’s coming into this in fantastic shape, so Adrian and I couldn’t be happier with her. She’s going to relish the step up to 1350 metres, and she returns to the track she won at on debut so we know she goes well here which adds further confidence. Regan has developed a terrific association with her, so he’ll let her land where she’s comfortable from barrier 8 and hopefully she can enjoy a smooth run in transit and get the luck where she needs it. She needs to keep improving to win here, but we think she’s capable of doing just that so we expect her to be very hard to beat.

FRIDAY 16th JANUARY - CANTERBURY

Rail Position: +3M Entire

LITTLE IRIS - Race 1, 6.00pm, 1250m, J Parr, 59kg
Little Iris is delighting us ahead of her first career start. Her two trials have been excellent, and she really stuck her neck out when finishing second in her most recent one which was encouraging to see. This race is confined to her own sex and as it happens they’re all three-year-olds too, so it’s a lovely kick off point for her. Josh will be positive from barrier 4 to get her rolling along on or close to the speed, and if she can land in the lead and steal an easy sectional or two mid-race it will certainly help her. She’s going to improve as she gets over a bit further but 1250 metres is an ideal starting point for her, and she’s an uncomplicated filly who has a willing attitude which will take her a long way. She’s got plenty going for her, so we expect her to put up a bold show and hopefully she can get her career off to the best possible start. 

VASALA - Race 3, 7.00pm, 1900m, J Stanley, 59kg
Vasala gave us such a thrill when winning so determinedly at Gosford last time. He needed every yard of the 1600 metres to get the job done, but there was no faulting his tenacity and it’s given him a real confidence boost. The first foray outside of maiden grade is never easy, however a Benchmark 64 is a nice steppingstone for him and he’s going to absolutely relish stretching out to 1900 metres so we expect this to bring about further improvement. Jett will be positive from barrier 6 to get him rolling along on or close to the speed, and whilst Canterbury is a tight track he handled Gosford well last time and the longer trip should help him cope with it too. He’s in terrific shape, so if he can get into a good rhythm and enjoy some favours in the run we see no reason why he won’t be fighting out the finish.

SOVEREIGN HILL - Race 6, 8.30pm, 1250m, J Parr, 57.5kg
Sovereign Hill is delighting us ahead of his first-up run. His two trials have been encouraging, and they’ve given him the right fitness base with which to kick off his preparation. He wasn’t beaten far when last first-up over 1100 metres, but it was on the short side for him. As such, this time in we’re kicking him off over a much more suitable 1250 metres and we expect him to be very well suited by it. He underperformed over course and distance when second-up last preparation, but he had excuses that day and importantly we’ve been patient and given him plenty of time since then so he’s matured and strengthened up encouragingly. He’s drawn well in barrier 5, so Josh will let him land where he’s comfortable but we expect him to be close to the speed. From there he should be able to get into a comfortable rhythm in the run, and whilst he’s conceding race fitness to some key rivals he’s ready to do himself justice. This race is a lovely starting point for him, so with even luck in running we hope to see him hitting the line strongly to get his campaign off to an exciting start.