Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse Gais Tip Sheet

FRIDAY 27th FEBRUARY - CANTERBURY

Rail Position: +5M Entire 

THE WILDLING, Race 1, 1100m, 6.00pm, R Bayliss, 55.5kg
The Wildling is pleasing us ahead of her return. She ran a terrific race to finish sixth on debut in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes in October, where she was only 1.68 lengths from the winner. She’s been given time to mature since then, and she’s certainly strengthened up. She improved from her first to second trial and she would have finished closer at this track in her latest one but for being tightened up in the run to the line, so we’re pleased with how she’s going ahead of this contest. She’s got the benefit of previous race experience which is a huge asset, and this represents a slight drop in grade from her first start. As such, whilst barrier 14 is a little awkward she will come in after some scratchings and she’s got the gate speed to roll forward and get across into a more favourable inside position. This is a lovely race for her to resume in, so if she gives a strong kick on straightening it’ll take a good one to run her down.

SAVVY SPY, Race 3, 1900m, 7.00pm, T Clark, 57.5kg
Savvy Spy ran a very encouraging race when finishing second over 1550 metres at this track last week. It was a step up in grade from his first-up run at Kembla, but he showed he’d taken plenty of improvement from that outing and he lost nothing in defeat by finding only an older gelding too strong for him. He reopposes that horse here but he’s much better off at the weights with him which is a big plus, so they are very closely matched. He’s racing on a seven-day backup here and you never fully know until you try how a horse will cope with this, but all the signs at home are certainly positive. We’re excited to stretch him out to 1900 metres because he’s bred to stay, and it should suit him down to the ground. He’s taking on older horses again which does make life tough, but this is the right steppingstone to get him to staying races back against his own age group down the line and we see no reason why he can’t give this a good shake.

FRIDAY 27th FEBRUARY - GOULBURN

Rail Position: +3M Entire 

CANADIAN FLING, Race 7, 1500m, 4.40pm, Z Wadick, 55kg
Canadian Fling gave us such a thrill when breaking her maiden so dominantly over course and distance last time. She got a bit tired late so her winning margin doesn’t really reflect her effort, but she’s taken further improvement from it and strips fitter again here. She sticks to 1500 metres as it seemed to see her out last time, and Zac knows her inside out so we’re delighted that he retains the ride. He’ll once again be positive from barrier 3 to try and repeat the front running tactics that were successful last time, and whilst the first run outside of maiden grade is never easy this is a lovely steppingstone for her and we will be disappointed if she’s not fighting out the finish.

LADY CAPITALIST, Race 8, 1200m, 5.20pm, Z Wadick, 56.5kg
Lady Capitalist is delighting us ahead of her first start. Her first trial was excellent and whilst her latest one at Rosehill wasn’t quite as impressive, it’s not unusual for horses to perform like that after a big effort prior so we’re prepared to be forgiving of it. This is a realistic level for her to kick off her career, and 1200 metres is a lovely starting point for her. Zac will be positive from barrier 5 to try and land in a prominent position where she can enjoy all the favours in the run. She’s conceding race experience to her key rivals which isn’t easy to do, but she’s a lovely filly with a great attitude and if she can enjoy some luck in running we hope to see her fighting out the finish to get her career off to an exciting start. 

SATURDAY 28th FEBRUARY - RANDWICK

Rail Position: True

BEAR ON THE LOOSE, Race 3, 2000m, 1.40pm, A Hyeronimus, 61.5kg
Bear On The Loose got his preparation off to a rip roaring beginning when finishing third over a mile at this track. He’s taken plenty of benefit from it so he strips fitter here, and he’s stepping up to 2000 metres which is also going to suit him. He’s dropping in grade slightly so he’s going up in the weights and carries 61.5kg as a result, which is a lot. However, he’s taking on slightly inferior opposition and Adam’s a natural heavyweight rider so we’ve put him on to ensure he carries minimal deadweight in the form of lead. We expect him to use his natural early speed to land in front from barrier 3 and make his own luck from there, and if he can steal an easy sectional or two mid-race before stretching them out rounding the home turn it will take a good horse to reel him in.

BY CHOICE, Race 4, 1200m, 2.15pm, T Clark, 56.5kg
By Choice is delighting us ahead of this outing. She ran the race of her life when finishing third in the Magic Millions 2 Year Old Classic in January, and she’s taken everything in her stride since returning from Queensland. Her recent trial at Rosehill was excellent, and this has kept her fitness up to the mark between runs so she’s certainly ready to go here. She relished the 1200 metres last time so we know she’s well-suited to this trip, and Tim will be positive from barrier 9 to work forward and land in a prominent position where she can then settle into a comfortable rhythm. She broke her maiden at this track on debut so we know she goes well here, and she’s a very professional filly who’s easy to do anything with which gives Tim options depending on how the race pans out. The recent rainfall is a query for all of them, especially if it gets into the heavy range, but your filly's dam actually finished in front of subsequent Group 1 winner, Lasqueti Spirit on a heavy 9 so we're hopeful she too will take it in her stride. This is a key lead up to the Golden Slipper next month so it’s extremely competitive, but she has some of the strongest form and we see no reason why she won’t be right there at the finish.

LUMBINI, Race 4, 1200m, 2.15pm, A Hyeronimus, 56.5kg
Lumbini is delighting us ahead of this race. Time will probably tell that she was beaten by an extremely smart colt in the shape of Warwoven at Eagle Farm last time, so we don’t think she lost anything in defeat. We’ve given her a bit of time since then which has done her the world of good, and her recent trial at Rosehill was excellent and has kept her fitness up to the mark between runs so she’s certainly ready to go here. She has drawn well in barrier 5, so Adam will be positive from there to try and land in a prominent position where she can then settle into a comfortable rhythm. This is her first run in New South Wales and she’s on her home track which is only ever a positive, and she’s a professional filly who’s got plenty of ability so we haven’t lost any faith in her. The recent rainfall is a query for all of them, especially if it gets into the heavy range, but your filly's sire liked the sting out of the ground and his progeny that we've trained seem to have followed suit, so we're hopeful she too will take it in her stride. This is a key lead up to the Golden Slipper next month so it’s extremely competitive, but she has some good form to her name and we see no reason why she won’t give this a good shake.

PLAGIARISM, Race 5, 1200m, 2.50pm, A Hyeronimus, 56.5kg
Plagiarism ran a fantastic race to finish a close sixth in the Inglis Millennium last time. As mentioned above, the form has a bit of a question mark around it but he fought on incredibly bravely after covering plenty of ground in the run so you can probably upgrade his effort slightly. The recent rainfall is a query for all of them, especially if it gets into the heavy range, but your colt's dam won and placed on a heavy 10 so we're hopeful he too will take it in his stride.This is a tough race and he’s taking on horses with strong form lines, so we’re under no illusions as to the task he faces. However, he maps to roll forward from barrier 9 to make his own luck on speed and if he can enjoy a more economical run this time we’re sure he’ll be in it for a long way.

GERRINGONG, Race 6, 1400m, 3.25pm, N Rawiller, 55kg
Nothing went Gerringong’s way first-up, so we’re best off wiping that from our minds. She’ll have a barrier blanket this time to try and help her jump better from the barriers, and she’s reunited with Nash who almost won the Group 2 The Invitation on her in the spring which is another positive. If she jumps on terms from barrier 2 she should be able to land in a forward position and enjoy all the favours in the run, leaving her well positioned as the race develops. She broke her maiden on a soft 5 but is yet to encounter a heavy track so we're hopeful that the rain has passed now as we want to see her utilise her electric turn of foot. The step up to 1400 metres will suit her, so if she executes the start effectively we expect her to bounce back and be right in the finish.

SIR DELIUS, Race 8, 1600m, 4.40pm, C Williams, 59kg
Sir Delius is ticking all the right boxes ahead of his return. His three trials have served their purpose in getting him as fit as we can, so he’s coming into this in the best possible shape but there will inevitably be improvement to come. He’s kicking off over a mile which he was almost victorious over when last first-up in the spring, so whilst it’s far short of his optimum trip we know he can be effective over it which adds confidence. Craig will let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 6, and with Lindermann looking the likely leader he should get a good tow into the race. He's unbeaten on heavy tracks so we've been doing a rain dance all week and last night's deluge couldn't have come at a better time. There are no easy Group 1s and this is no exception, with Autumn Glow setting a formidable standard. However, he’s a top class horse is in his own right as his two Group 1 wins in the spring proved, and whilst his main targets are later in the preparation he’s ready to do himself justice and we hope he can cause an upset to get his campaign off to the best possible start.

THE INSTRUCTOR, Race 9, 1300m, 5.15pm, R Bayliss, 56kg
The Instructor lost nothing in defeat when finishing fourth behind three weight for age titans in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes last time. He possibly didn’t see out a strong 1400 metres in that grade, so this drop to 1300 metres promises to suit him enormously. He’s got the speed to roll forward from barrier 13 and Regan will get him across into a more favourable position, and from there he can roll along and make his own luck. The deluge of rain overnight won't faze him at all as he has form on soft tracks, though if it gets into the heavy range, it's a step into the unknown which we feel he would handle. He’s a wonderful gelding who’s as tough as old teak, and we’ve no doubt he’ll race with his heart on his sleeve once again and hopefully he can find his way back into the Winner’s Circle.