Gai Waterhouse | Gai Waterhouse News 64706 Weight For Age Racing

Weight-for-age racing

There are three important issues concerning the Australian Weight-For-Age (WFA) races.

1. WFA races have come, foolishly, to dominate Australian racing, to the detriment of prizemoney distribution and returns to owners.

2. The WFA Scale should be tweaked. It is unfair.

3. As a general point, notwithstanding that the horse population has dropped, the number of Black Type races in general and WFA Group Ones in particular, have ‘inflated’, devaluing their “Group One” worth, to the detriment of breeders.

Weight-for-age domination

Racing is poorer with the modern preoccupation with WFA races over handicaps. Sadly, of Australia’s 50 highest prizemoney races, only six are handicaps, quite the reverse of yesteryear – and it is a negative for both betting turnover and prizemoney distribution.

Punters prefer handicaps as a betting medium over WFA races – an obvious example is the hugely-publicised $20m Everest compared with the $5m handicap Caulfield Cup, run the same day. Last year, in spite of the overwhelming publicity Everest onslaught, Betfair only held $0.993m and only $2m was held on the NSW Tote. On the Caulfield Cup, Betfair held $1.6m and $2.417m was held on the NSW tote, trumping the Everest. Few in racing, would realise this is the case, but is normal and demonstrates the punters’ preference.

The slide to WFA racing a big mistake and it bad for racing’s finances.

It is interesting that in 1930 when Phar Lap won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup double, the Cup was worth eight times the value of the WFA race. There is, sadly, not much difference now. Administrators were correct 94 years ago.

Importantly, in years to come, Black Caviar and Winx won’t get the credit from form students that Carbine, Phar Lap and Kingston Town earned, as both the mares only faced handicaps with big weights just once, in the Newmarket and Doncaster, respectively.

“Tweaking”

Let me say at the outset that if changes were to be made, the current racing population shouldn’t be affected.

In assessing the current WFA Scale, two questions should be asked:

1. Is the proportion of runners from each age and sex category appropriate?

2. Is the ratio of results from each age and sex category appropriate?

Runners:

Since 1991 (when anabolic steroids were discontinued) there have 240 WFA races and over 2500 starters.

Obviously, 3yos are underrepresented – with 217 of the total 2543 starters 3yos comprise only 8.5% of the WFA1 runners, whereas they constitute 25% of the Australian racing population.

Because of an irresponsible, nay vandalistic, alteration to the WFA Scale in 1998 in relation to races over distances beyond 2400m (>2400m was removed as category, resulting in 3yos at 3200m going from 47kg to 50kg!), the Melbourne Cup, which used to be dominated by up-and-coming 3yos, has had zero Southern-hemisphere 3yo starters in 27 years. None. A travesty. Mean to the Cup. And obviously unintended and must corrected.

Females are also ‘missing in action’, fillies and mares WFA starters making only 22% of runners, males making the balance of 78% of WFA starters. This is plainly wrong.

Results

Notwithstanding the fact that 3yos start, on average, at shorter prices than any other age group in WFA races, reflecting the betting public’s miss-assessment, one loses a giant 34.9% backing them. This clearly shows that 3yos are hard done by! They need a kilo extra relief.

Staying Northern Hemisphere 3yos need their 3200m allowance reinstated i.e. 3kgs. There is also no justification for this reduction of the NH 3yo allowance. The allowance since 2019 is unjustifiable by the Australian scale and, in my opinion, is xenophobic and unsportsman-like.

Females have a much smaller candidature but “backing them”, with the bookmakers’ percentage built in, you only lose 1.3%, compared to entires 23.6% (perhaps the cream are retired to stud) and geldings 13.4%. Anecdotally, some mares have built extraordinary records e.g. Black Caviar, Winx, More Joyous, Via Sistina etc.

It would be appropriate to increase the female allowance to 3kg, but subsequently reduce the filly and mare allowance by one kilo for each WFA1 win.

Number of Group Ones

When the pattern replaced the Principal Races in the 1970s, there were 54 Australian Group Ones or 0.22% of our races.

Our foal crop, (the racing population hasn’t dropped by as much) has dropped since then by 25%. Our Group Ones should be down to 41 races. Instead we have 76 (with more demanded) or 0.4%. This higher than for every other major jurisdiction (US 0.29%; Japan 0.15%; UK 0.33%; Canada 0.23%).

What is to be done?:

1. 3yos to be given an extra 1kg allowance.

2. The WFA Scale to cover 3200m, and reinstall the 3kgs allowance to 3yos in the Melbourne Cup, as it was before 1998.

3. The North Hemisphere allowance 3yo allowance to be restored, giving them an extra kilo, as it was before 2019.

4. Females’ allowance to be increased from 2kgs to 3kgs but to lose one kilo for each Group One WFA win.

5. Fight another day on the issue “too many wfas” and “too many Group Ones”.