Too Much Caviar, Sat 9th September, Rosehill Gardens, Race 3:
I know I have picked him before, and I have been close to picking him a number of other times, but I am certain his day in the sun is coming. He’s having his fifth start this preparation after running fourth three times and just getting caught on the line two weeks ago by a horse they seemingly have a very high opinion of. I am making this assumption because Wineglass Bay’s jockey, James McDonald, was chasing the ride on Too Much Caviar in Saturday’s race, just before he announced his month-long hiatus from riding. This also implies to me that it’s a very winnable race because James is retained by others, making him difficult to book, so it’s an extremely rare situation. Regan Bayliss has the best affiliation with this horse, and as such he had been booked some time ago, but it gave a me little extra confidence to make him this week’s pick. He’s suitably weighted, he’s won at this level before, he’s deep into his preparation and stepping up in trip. He’s untested over 2400 metres but I don’t see it as being a problem and I think he’s well placed here.